Dongwu Securities: The semiconductor industry chain welcomes multiple opportunities to grow with localization and AI innovation
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that global AI capital expenditure has increased strongly, and domestic computing power chips have ushered in the release of performance. The replacement of domestic production in the cloud is accelerating, and the NPU on the end side is opening up new scenarios. Storage welcomes the “supercycle”, a breakthrough in advanced packaging and equipment autonomy. AI is driving consumer electronics switching and the explosion of new AR products, and the PCB/CCL industry chain volume and price have risen sharply.
The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:
Cloud computing power chips: AICapex invests heavily and is optimistic about the release of domestic computing power performance
Global CSP capital expenditure continued the quarterly upward trend. The capital expenditure of the four major overseas CSPs (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) in 25Q3 totaled US$97.9 billion, +10% over the previous quarter. In a context where demand for tokens (such as bytes, etc.) is approaching overseas giants and supply is insufficient, there is plenty of room to catch up. It is recommended to focus on the Cambrian period (688256.SH), Haiguang Information (688041.SH), etc. Furthermore, as the core base for domestic production, Huawei Shengteng pioneered the “Super Node” strategy (Atlas900/950 SuperPod) to achieve performance benchmarking to the Nvidia GB200 through 10,000 card level unconverged interconnection.
End-side computing power chips: optimistic that large overseas models will drive benefits for industrial chain companies, and that NPU technology path innovation will open up new application scenarios
(1) Overseas chains: From the perspective of overseas tech giants, the strategic position of end-side AI is rapidly rising and entering the stage of full implementation. Google integrates the model into core products such as search, Gmail, and Android, and combines its existing hardware terminal layout to form a systematic collaboration from the cloud to the end side. Overall, increased certainty in overseas chain-side AI demand is expected to drive SoC manufacturers to achieve structural breakthroughs in a new generation of lightweight large model terminals. (2) NPU coprocessor: The end-side model upgrade spawned the evolution of the hardware architecture to a dedicated coprocessor. Manufacturers represented by Rockchip are pioneering innovative coprocessor solutions for end-side AI. End-side computing power coprocessor series chips have built-in high-computing power NPU and high-bandwidth embedded DRAM, which can better meet the dynamic balance requirements of computing power, memory, and capacity for end-side model deployment.
Storage: The sector itself is a strong cycle sector. The current cycle has continued to rise since 25Q2, and is expected to continue until the full year of '26
Referring to the DRAM index, the total increase from September to November 2025 was 101%, while the NAND index also rose 79% during the same period. Currently, in order to guarantee the normal shipment of servers, all CSP manufacturers have increased their procurement of storage products, and since they are not sensitive to storage prices, the increase in storage prices continues to exceed expectations, creating a “super cycle.” The total enterprise storage revenue of the top five storage companies in 25Q3 exceeded US$6.54 billion, an increase of 28% over the previous quarter. Server vendors such as Byte and Ali in China also continued to raise their AICapex expectations, driving up demand for enterprise-grade storage. Under this trend, domestic manufacturers are actively deploying enterprise-level storage, benefiting from the dual logic of (1) increasing the capital expenditure of domestic CSP vendors and (2) increasing the share of domestic enterprise-level storage.
Simulation: Demand for cars in the sector continues to grow, but it is expected that there will still be pressure to reduce prices this year
The industrial sector has come to an end and is currently in the early stages of recovery. At the same time, the bank believes that the game, confrontation, and reconciliation between China and the US over tariffs may have been the main theme for 26 years. Follow-up attention is paid to the implementation of mature anti-dumping and other policies, which is expected to greatly improve the supply pattern in the simulation industry. With the launch of AI applications in '26, the bank believes that emerging simulation models born around AI will have broad development opportunities. The core is optimistic about the development opportunities of analog chips such as Drmos and micropump liquid cooling.
Wafer manufacturing: wafer manufacturing capital expenditure has reached a new level, and advanced manufacturing processes and packaging have accelerated breakthroughs
Looking ahead to 2026, domestic Fab factories will usher in a “big year of production expansion” of storage and advanced logic, which will strongly support the high level of the foundry manufacturing boom. In this context, the semiconductor equipment sector is expected to interpret the “beta+α” resonance market. It is recommended to focus on growth targets with technology implementation logic, such as industry leaders benefiting from production expansion dividends and Jingzhida. At the same time, under the influence of the explosion of AI computing power and external blockades, the industrial chain is speeding up the construction of a two-wheel drive pattern of “autonomous control of the front-end lithography machine+leap in advanced packaging performance in the future”: companies represented by micro-assembly on the core and Maolai Optics are accelerating breakthroughs in the field of lithography machines and core components, while manufacturers such as Shenghe Jingwei rely on 2.5D/3D advanced packaging technology to build a solid computing power base to jointly rebuild solid barriers in the domestic high-performance chip supply chain.
Consumer electronics: AI drives changes in terminal interaction, and mobile phone switching resonates with new AR products
1) In terms of AI phones, end-side AI is shifting from a single-point assistant to an OSAgent form across application operating systems, and mobile phones will be the first to benefit as mature carriers of computing, storage, and interaction. Among them, Apple is expected to lead the transformation of the experience through OSAgent upgrades, and strongly drive existing users of the iPhone 15 Pro to start the switching cycle, focusing on fruit chain leaders such as Lixun Precision and Lansi Technology and targets related to folding screens. 2) In terms of AR glasses, the AR glasses industry is reaching a critical inflection point. 2026 is expected to be the first year of AI smart glasses release and the year of changes in the power of AR products. With the intensive release of new products from giants such as Meta, Apple, and Samsung, optical display incremental circuits such as micro-LED, optical waveguides, and SiC materials will usher in clear investment opportunities.
PCB/CCL: AI computing power drives the PCB/CCL market, and the market volume and price of architecture upgrades and M9 material applications have risen sharply
Global cloud vendors have entered a period of capital expenditure expansion, and overseas giants such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are adopting a “pre-construction computing power” strategy to drive the explosive growth of leading models such as Gemini 3 through record capital investment. In terms of PCB/CCL, the Nvidia cabinet architecture has moved from GB200/300 to Rubin/Kyber. By introducing extremely low loss materials such as orthogonal backboards and M9/PTFE, the total value of single cabinet PCBs has increased exponentially, driving the AIPCB market to 60 billion yuan in 2026, an increase of 229.8% over the previous year; on the ASIC side, Google TPUv8 may use M9 materials. The value of the veneer is about 1.5 times that of the previous generation, becoming another major source of growth for the AIPCB market. The upstream core materials market has also exploded. In order to meet the ultra-high speed demand of 224 Gbps, demand for quartz cloth has surged. The market demand for quartz cloth is expected to reach about 9.9 billion yuan by 2027, an increase of 230% over the 3 billion yuan in 2026. At the same time, there is a structural shortage of HVLP4 copper foil supply and demand, speeding up the import substitution process for domestic manufacturers and jointly driving the CCL industry chain to achieve a sharp rise in volume and price.
Risk warning: AI computing power infrastructure construction is slowing down, industry competition is intensifying and price war risk, upstream raw material price fluctuation risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, AI innovation and application implementation fall short of expectations.