Where Will D-Wave Quantum Stock Be in 1 Year?
Key Points
D-Wave stock is up nearly 500% in the past 12 months.
The company announced a new government business unit in December.
Much of the stock's meteoric rise has been due to overall market hype for quantum computing.
D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) is at an inflection point, and the next 12 months could be crucial.
The bull case
For bullish investors, D-Wave has a few significant advantages in the quantum computing race, most importantly, the company has transitioned from research and development to enterprise sales. Most of D-Wave's competitors have yet to reach commercial viability. D-Wave, however, is booking sales and growing revenue.
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D-Wave is also a first mover in quantum annealing. However, its commercial-ready Advantage2 system needs to prove it's widely useful to silence critics who claim the scope for quantum computing products is narrow, and the market is smaller than the hype.
Image source: Getty Images.
If the company can continue growing its impressive list of customers -- it already touts Volkswagen, Pattison Food Group, and Denso Corporation among them -- revenue should continue catching up to operating expenses.
I'm also optimistic as D-Wave recently announced the creation of a U.S. government business unit that will work to secure potentially lucrative government contracts.
The bear case
Now let's look at the bear case. If the real-world uses for quantum computing fall short of expectations, this would be disastrous for D-Wave. Also, D-Wave's revenue is growing, but perhaps not fast enough. In Q3 2025, D-Wave reported nine-month revenue growth of 235%, but expenses were also up 38% to $84.1 million. This resulted in a net loss of $312.7 million through the first nine months of the year.
D-Wave's stock is up nearly 500% in the past 12 months, but the hype surrounding quantum computing overshadows the company's financial performance. Heavy operating losses and future profitability remain a concern.
What's in store in the next 12 months?
If D-Wave can continue growing revenue consistently, shareholders should benefit. D-Wave can achieve this through government contracts and testimonials from existing customers showing Advantage2 is transformational. Quantum computing is a young, fast-changing industry, but there's potential for D-Wave stock to soar in the next year.
Catie Hogan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Volkswagen Ag. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.