Cinda Securities: China's manufacturing industry enters the global development cycle, and more opportunities are emerging in structural development fields

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that the pricing logic of Chinese stocks is subtly changing, gradually taking a more active position in trade between China and the US, and the Chinese manufacturing industry has entered a global development cycle; real estate has stopped falling, and the reverse internal volume has formed a shift in economic thinking, reducing macro tail risks; new technologies/new industries have emerged, and more opportunities are emerging in the field of structural development. There are four core sector allocation directions: new consumption trends with structural growth, overseas travel with increased global resource allocation capacity, long-term advantage in high dividend strategies, and white horse in undervalued consumption.

Cinda Securities's main views are as follows:

New Consumption: The Choice of the Times

(1) Personal care & pet food & baby care: The pet food industry is showing a sharp rise in volume and price. Diversified growth is expected to raise the ceiling, have higher consumer education barriers, strong brand stickiness, and have significant single product effects. The baby industry pattern is scattered, but excellent brands rely on quality and price ratio & rapid iteration to increase share of popular products, and the industry is developing deeply in the direction of refinement, functionality, and specialization. The former focuses on female emotional marketing, while the latter emphasizes functional product marketing. The above tracks all benefit from consumption upgrades and the advantages of localization of domestic brands, and continue to innovate in terms of products, channels, marketing, etc., and promote the development of the industry in the direction of high-end and segmentation. It is recommended to pay attention to Gaibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Ltd., Yiyi Co., Ltd., Baiya Co., Ltd., Dengkang Dental, Runben Co., Ltd. (2) Gold jewellery: The bank is optimistic that fine jewellery will continue to prosper in 2026. The core stems from the value-preserving and value-added attributes of gold jewellery and the strengthening of leading companies' products & brand logic, which will accelerate the concentration of its share towards leading brands. It is recommended to focus on established stores such as Gold, Chaohongji, Mancaron, and Ryshen Tongling, which are expected to maintain beautiful growth in brand value, Caibai shares with investment products and full direct management models, and traditional brands such as Lukfook Group, Zhou Liufu, Chow Tai Fu, Lao Fengxiang, and Chow Tai Sang, which continue to recover. (3) Chaofun: Representative of emotional consumption, leading enterprises are in the stage of upgrading their business model from “single product driven” to “IP+ industry chain+ecology”. It is recommended to prioritize leading companies with outstanding capabilities in the entire industry chain, deep IP barriers, and strong growth certainty, such as Bubble Mart, and focus on segmented circuit leaders Bruker, Mingchuang Premium, Chenguang Co., Ltd., and Little Yellow Ya Deying. (4) New tobacco: vaping regulations are becoming stricter and the compliance market is recovering steadily; the penetration rate of the HNB industry is increasing at an accelerated pace, the iteration of leading global tobacco products is accelerating, and brand competition is intensifying. As a leader in atomization manufacturing, Smore International binds core brand customers to create a second growth curve for HNB. The bank expects the 25Q3 report growth to partially reflect HNB's incremental contribution, and the diversified matrix is expected to help grow together in the future. Furthermore, upstream and downstream companies in the industrial chain such as China Tobacco Hong Kong, Huabao International, Hengfeng Paper, and Xianhe Co., Ltd. have achieved in-depth layout and deep participation many years ago. (5) Smart glasses: Global sales of AI smart glasses reached 3.12 million units in 2025Q1-3 (+285% year over year), and Wellsenn expects the industry to grow dramatically in 26, with global sales reaching 18 million units. Currently, leading manufacturers are gradually changing their R&D ideas, and the importance of dimensions such as comfort, aesthetics, and AI interaction is being upgraded. It is expected that supporting requirements for the industry chain will increase in the future. Focus on Conet Optics, Moon lenses, doctor glasses, etc. (6) Two-wheelers: The smooth transition of the new national standard products, the optimization of the industry pattern, and the improvement of the leading product structure. It is recommended to focus on Taotao Auto Industry, which is leading in technology and has excellent overseas performance and actively lays out a new robot curve. Yadi Holdings and Emma Technology, which have outstanding comprehensive advantages and are expected to increase their market share.

Procyclical: The charm of cycles

(1) Home: The bank expects the industry to remain in an adjustment period in 25-26, and is expected to stabilize in 27. Relying on demand for updates in 25 years, endogenous channel transformation and category expansion have achieved steady growth. Dependence on customized new homes is high, the number of stores has shrunk significantly, the results of the reform of surviving stores are gradually showing, and operations have remained resilient. It is recommended to focus on Gujia Home, Xilinmen, Mousse, Minhua Holdings, Good Wife, Rieter, etc., which account for high demand for updates. It is recommended to increase real estate chain policy expectations. It is recommended to focus on leading customized European Home, Baby Rabbit, Sophia, Zhibang Home, Gold Medal Home, My Happy Home, etc. (2) Papermaking: Global wood chip supply is shrinking, and demand is expected to continue to rise due to downstream pulp production. Tight wood chip resources may become the norm, supporting the bottom rise in pulp prices in the medium to long term. New pulp production capacity was limited in '26, overseas interest rate cuts may continue, and trade conflicts have weakened marginally. The bank judges that demand is expected to pick up steadily. Considering the commencement of domestic homemade pulp production and the bank's projected overall supply and demand or basic balance, pulp prices are expected to rise moderately. Leading papermaking projects have declined to a high level, and the pressure on supply and demand in the industry is gradually easing, waiting for future demand-side improvements to accelerate the digestion of production capacity. Leading companies are expected to expand their competitive advantage through the integration of forest pulp and paper during this period. Bulk paper suggests focusing on Sun Paper, which has consolidated and rising bottom profits, and focuses on Jiulong Paper, Bohui Paper, Shanying International, Yueyang Forest Paper, Chenming Paper, etc.; specialty paper suggests focusing on Xianhe Co., Ltd., Hengfeng Paper, Huawang Technology, and Wuzhou Special Paper, which have diverse products, excellent cycle resistance, and plenty of growth momentum. (3) Packaging: The concentration of the metal packaging industry has further increased. In the future, domestic supply of new two-piece cans will be limited, supply and demand pressure will slow down, and industry profits will be low. The leader is expected to shift from share-oriented to profit-oriented. The bank judges that the 26-year benchmark price may increase slightly. At the current juncture, downstream demand for paper & plastic packaging is stable, leading revenue performance is steady, profits are ahead of peers, cash flow performance is excellent, dividends are high, and the overseas journey is accelerating. Follow Yutong Technology, Yongxin Co., Ltd., Meiyingsen, Zijiang Enterprise, Baosteel Packaging, Orekin, and Shengxing Co., Ltd.

Exports: The supply pattern was reshaped, when the brand went overseas

After the US interest rate cut, real estate improvement expectations were gradually established, tariff disputes eased, and Q4 corporate orders have improved markedly. In this round of tariff disputes, there have been no significant changes in the distribution of profits in the industrial chain. Most companies only bear a small portion of the tax rate, and the impact on profits is limited. In the medium term, leading overseas bases are leading in localization and self-production, the first-mover advantage is clear, and the global supply share is expected to increase. Overseas enterprises represented by Taotao, Zhitao, and Ingenuity bucked the trend and showed strong resilience. In the future, their brand influence will expand with mature localized operations. It is recommended to focus on 1) Ingenious Home, Taotao Auto Industry, Zhongxin Co., Ltd., Yingke Renewable Co., Ltd., Yongyi Co., Ltd., Superstar Technology, Co-Creation Lawn, Hals, Zhejiang Nature, Jianlin Home, Tianzhen Co., Ltd., Impace, Xidaimen, Henglin Co., Ltd., Lego Co., Ltd., Yuma Technology, Jiayi Co., Ltd. 2) Leading cross-border e-commerce brands such as Anke Innovation, Zhiou Technology, Saiwei Co., Ltd., Carot, Aogi Co., Ltd.

Textiles and apparel: The structural boom in clothing and home textiles continues to be manufactured overseas

Looking ahead to 2026, the three main lines are worth paying attention to: first, the sports and outdoor clothing boom is expected to reach 9.6%/9.2% in 2029, with product innovation driving growth. It is recommended to focus on Anta Sports, Tep International, and Li Ning; second, menswear and home textile leaders show resilience. Men's clothing CR10 reaches 23%, and major home textile products and online technology have opened up space for additional volume. It is recommended to focus on Hailan Home, Mercury Home Textiles, and Rollei Life; three is that the external demand for textile manufacturing is optimistic. Health, orders are expected to improve. The transfer of production capacity continues to deepen. With a zero tariff window, demographic dividends and strong policies, Indonesia has become an important destination after Vietnam. It is recommended to focus on textile and foundry companies established in Indonesia, related targets such as Shenzhou International, Huali Group, Weixing Co., and Kairun shares.

Risk factors: The recovery in domestic and overseas consumption fell short of expectations, intensified global trade frictions, lower than expected recovery in real estate sales, large fluctuations in raw material prices, and the risk of new tobacco policies.