IDC: IT spending is expected to grow 14% in 2025, reaching a new high in nearly 30 years. Investment in AI infrastructure is the main driving force

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the “IDC Worldwide Black Book” recently released by the International Data Corporation (IDC), global information technology (covering hardware, software, and IT services) spending is expected to grow 14% in 2025, the fastest growth rate since 1996. At the time, the release of Windows 95, the mass popularity of PCs, and the rapid development of the Internet all contributed to the take-off of IT spending. Nearly 30 years later, a massive wave of AI infrastructure investment is leading a new supercycle of technology investment. Global IT spending is expected to reach US$4.25 trillion (approximately RMB 30 trillion) in 2025. Including telecommunications and business services, the total global information and communication technology (ICT) expenditure would be close to 7 trillion US dollars (about 50 trillion yuan).

The report shows that IT spending forecasts for 2025 have been raised for 7 consecutive months, mainly reflecting that service providers' investment in AI infrastructure continues to exceed expectations. Meanwhile, enterprise software spending is strong, and digital transformation and cloud migration are still progressing steadily. Software spending is expected to increase by 14% in 2025, and the deployment of AI will also drive continued investment in security, optimization, and analytics.

Stephen Minton, vice president of IDC Group, said that AI is the core theme of IT market performance in 2025, but currently most AI investments are still focused on infrastructure construction for service providers. This part of the investment was supported by the company's stable expenditure on core IT products and services. At the same time, AI investment is also driving economic growth and stability, thereby supporting enterprises to maintain investment in cloud services and enterprise software. Overall, we are experiencing a technology-driven macroeconomic “virtuous cycle”.

Global IT spending increased 16% in the first quarter of 2025, partly due to potential tariffs in the second quarter, which led to earlier PC shipments, driving growth during the quarter. This growth rate is the highest quarterly level in nearly 29 years. Enterprise IT spending increased 11% in the first quarter and 10% in the second quarter. Meanwhile, service provider spending on data center infrastructure (including servers, storage and network equipment) is expected to increase significantly by 86% in 2025, and the annual scale is close to 0.5 trillion US dollars (about 3.5 trillion yuan).

Despite market discussions about the duration of the current growth cycle, there are currently no signs of slowing down. Research shows that most companies plan to continue to increase IT budgets in 2026, even if the global economic outlook remains uncertain. IDC predicts that global IT spending will increase by 10% in 2026, which is lower than 2025, but will still be one of the strongest performing years since the 1990s.

Stephen Minton also pointed out that 2026 will still face some challenges, including a possible shortage of memory components, which will drive up PC costs. Despite tariff pressure and the risk of global economic weakness, technology demand has shown strong resilience this year. IDC's baseline forecast assumes that the economy remains stable and that continued investment in AI will provide support. Even with a mild recession, most IT spending will continue. A “perfect storm” similar to the collapse of the IT market in 2001 is currently unlikely to occur.