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    Why Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) Is Up 73.6% After Upsized Equity Raise On Strong TERN-701 Data

    Simply Wall St·12/12/2025 10:28:49
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    • Terns Pharmaceuticals has completed an upsized follow-on equity offering of 16,250,000 common shares at US$40 each, raising about US$650 million, after presenting updated CARDINAL Phase 1 data for TERN-701 in previously treated chronic myeloid leukemia at the ASH 2025 meeting.
    • The new data, showing high major molecular response rates with a favorable safety profile in heavily pre-treated patients, has effectively repositioned TERN-701 as a potential next-generation competitor to existing CML therapies and supported Terns’ decision to secure a broad, omnibus shelf and substantial funding for late-stage development and possible commercialization.
    • We’ll now look at how this promising TERN-701 efficacy profile and sizeable capital raise reshape Terns Pharmaceuticals’ investment narrative.

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    What Is Terns Pharmaceuticals' Investment Narrative?

    To own Terns today, you really have to believe that TERN-701 can evolve from an impressive Phase 1 story into a meaningful commercial CML franchise, and that management can execute across late-stage trials without anything breaking. The ASH 2025 CARDINAL data, with high major molecular response rates and a clean safety profile in heavily pre-treated patients, has clearly shifted near-term focus toward pivotal trial design, regulatory interactions and competitive read-throughs versus existing CML drugs. The upsized US$650,000,000 equity raise and omnibus shelf registration materially change the risk and catalyst balance: financing risk is now pushed out, but dilution is locked in and expectations have moved higher after a very large year-to-date share price move. Near term, the biggest swing factors look like additional TERN-701 updates, clarity on trial timelines and how the stock behaves once the post-offering euphoria and upcoming insider lock-up expiries are behind it.

    But despite the funding boost, one emerging risk could easily catch newer shareholders off guard. Our expertly prepared valuation report on Terns Pharmaceuticals implies its share price may be too high.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TERN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TERN 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Simply Wall St Community members currently span fair value ideas from about US$53.56 up to US$98.57 across 2 separate estimates, underscoring how differently people are thinking about Terns after the ASH data and big capital raise. As you weigh those views against the company’s very large recent share price gain and still unprofitable profile, it is worth considering how much of the TERN-701 story may already be embedded in expectations.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Terns Pharmaceuticals - why the stock might be worth just $53.56!

    Build Your Own Terns Pharmaceuticals Narrative

    Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Terns Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Terns Pharmaceuticals research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Terns Pharmaceuticals' overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.