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    Alaska Air Group (ALK) Is Up 11.1% After New Seattle–Heathrow Route And Weaker Q4 Outlook

    Simply Wall St·12/12/2025 14:33:58
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    • Alaska Air Group has launched ticket sales for a new year-round, nonstop Seattle–London Heathrow route on Boeing 787-9 aircraft starting May 21, 2026, while also cutting its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings guidance due to IT outages, government shutdown-related disruptions, and higher fuel costs.
    • These developments highlight how Alaska Air is simultaneously pursuing long-haul international growth from its Seattle hub and confronting operational and legal challenges, including an investor investigation into disclosures around its recent systemwide IT outage.
    • We’ll now examine how Alaska’s new Seattle–London Heathrow service, alongside its weaker Q4 guidance, reshapes the company’s existing investment narrative.

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    Alaska Air Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Alaska Air Group, you need to believe that its Seattle-centered international expansion and fleet upgrades can eventually offset cyclical shocks, higher costs, and integration work with Hawaiian. The new Seattle–London Heathrow route supports the Seattle gateway growth story, while the sharply reduced Q4 2025 earnings guidance and IT outage fallout keep near term profitability and execution risk firmly in focus.

    The launch of year round Seattle–Heathrow 787-9 service from May 2026 ties directly into Alaska’s push to build Seattle into a larger global hub, a key long term catalyst built on higher-yield long haul flying and premium cabins. At the same time, the IT outage related investigation and Q4 guidance cut underline how technology reliability and cost control can quickly influence how that growth thesis plays out.

    But alongside the appeal of new long haul routes, investors should also be aware of the ongoing IT and legal overhang from...

    Read the full narrative on Alaska Air Group (it's free!)

    Alaska Air Group's narrative projects $16.9 billion revenue and $1.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 7.8% yearly revenue growth and a roughly $900 million earnings increase from $313.0 million today.

    Uncover how Alaska Air Group's forecasts yield a $65.71 fair value, a 25% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ALK 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ALK 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$49 to US$68.78 per share, underscoring how differently individual investors view Alaska’s prospects. You should weigh those views against the risks around rising unit costs and integration complexity, which could influence how much of the Seattle gateway and long haul growth story ultimately reaches the bottom line.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Alaska Air Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 31% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Alaska Air Group Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.