On December 12, Wang Haibo, director of the Petroleum Market Research Institute of the CNPC Economic Research Institute, told the media during the 2025 International Energy Development Summit that currently, the overall global oil market is relaxed, and the easing trend may expand further in the next two to three years. He analyzed that currently, in the context of energy transition and electric vehicle substitution, the growth rate of global oil demand is slowing down, and some developed countries have already entered a phase of long-term decline in demand. On the supply side, OPEC+ still has some remaining production capacity. Coupled with the increase in production in the Americas, supply can fully meet the growth in demand. Therefore, in his view, the market is expected to remain relaxed in the next two to three years, and oil prices will show a downward trend. As oil prices fall further, the investment enthusiasm of US shale oil manufacturers may be thwarted, and the market will gradually return to equilibrium. “Overall, in the next five years, we expect the average annual oil price to fluctuate within the range of 50-70 US dollars/barrel. Of course, it is not ruled out that sudden political events will cause supply and demand tension, which may cause oil prices to fall below 40 US dollars/barrel or break through 70-80 US dollars/barrel in stages, depending on the evolution and duration of the incident.”

On December 12, Wang Haibo, director of the Petroleum Market Research Institute of the CNPC Economic Research Institute, told the media during the 2025 International Energy Development Summit that currently, the overall global oil market is relaxed, and the easing trend may expand further in the next two to three years. He analyzed that currently, in the context of energy transition and electric vehicle substitution, the growth rate of global oil demand is slowing down, and some developed countries have already entered a phase of long-term decline in demand. On the supply side, OPEC+ still has some remaining production capacity. Coupled with the increase in production in the Americas, supply can fully meet the growth in demand. Therefore, in his view, the market is expected to remain relaxed in the next two to three years, and oil prices will show a downward trend. As oil prices fall further, the investment enthusiasm of US shale oil manufacturers may be thwarted, and the market will gradually return to equilibrium. “Overall, in the next five years, we expect the average annual oil price to fluctuate within the range of 50-70 US dollars/barrel. Of course, it is not ruled out that sudden political events will cause supply and demand tension, which may cause oil prices to fall below 40 US dollars/barrel or break through 70-80 US dollars/barrel in stages, depending on the evolution and duration of the incident.”