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To own Ensign Group, you really have to buy into a story built around disciplined roll‑up growth in post‑acute care, supported by a seasoned management team and a hybrid operator‑plus‑REIT structure. The December acquisitions in Colorado, Kansas and Arizona fit that thesis neatly, adding facilities under long‑term triple net leases without obviously changing the near‑term earnings picture, especially after several guidance raises already baked into expectations. In the short term, the bigger catalysts still look like execution on recent deals, occupancy and acuity trends, and how comfortably the market continues to live with a price‑to‑earnings multiple above healthcare peers. On the risk side, layering on more leased facilities increases exposure to operating missteps and reimbursement or cost pressures at the facility level, at a time when return on invested capital has already been under scrutiny.
But there is a more subtle risk around how much Ensign is paying for this growth. Despite retreating, Ensign Group's shares might still be trading 15% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$75 to just over US$207 per share, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Set against a premium valuation and a growing pipeline of triple net lease acquisitions, that spread invites you to weigh differing expectations for how well Ensign can keep converting deal flow into durable returns.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Ensign Group - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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