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    How New Missile and Radar Contracts Will Impact Northrop Grumman (NOC) Investors

    Simply Wall St·12/13/2025 13:32:10
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    • Northrop Grumman recently secured a sole-source contract worth up to US$100,000,000 to advance the Stand-in Attack Weapon and AARGM‑ER missile programs through 2034, while also rolling out extended‑range software upgrades for its G/ATOR radar and supplying CEESIM systems for fifth‑generation fighter testing.
    • Together, these wins reinforce Northrop Grumman’s role in high‑end missile, radar, and electronic warfare infrastructure that underpins long‑term U.S. and allied defense capabilities.
    • We’ll now examine how this new missile work and radar upgrade momentum interacts with Northrop Grumman’s existing investment narrative and outlook.

    Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

    Northrop Grumman Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Northrop Grumman, you generally need to believe that sustained U.S. and allied demand for advanced missiles, aircraft, and sensors will support long-term contracts and solid cash generation, despite periodic earnings volatility. The new US$100,000,000 sole-source missile award and G/ATOR software upgrade news modestly reinforce the near term catalyst of steady defense program funding, but they do not fundamentally change the biggest risk, which remains heavy reliance on a handful of large U.S. programs.

    The Stand-in Attack Weapon and AARGM ER contract stands out here, because it directly ties into one of Northrop Grumman’s key catalysts: the global focus on advanced missile and electronic warfare capabilities. While relatively small against the company’s multibillion dollar revenue base, a 10 year R&D and production effort in high priority munitions supports the broader thesis that its weapons, radar, and electronic warfare portfolio can benefit from elevated procurement and RDT&E budgets.

    Yet, despite this momentum, investors should be aware that Northrop Grumman’s dependence on a few very large U.S. programs still means...

    Read the full narrative on Northrop Grumman (it's free!)

    Northrop Grumman's narrative projects $47.5 billion revenue and $4.4 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Northrop Grumman's forecasts yield a $667.21 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    NOC 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NOC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Northrop Grumman range from US$498.83 to US$667.21, underscoring how far views on upside can spread. You can weigh those against the current risk that heavy exposure to B 21, Sentinel, and other large U.S. programs could amplify the impact of any future budget or program decision on the company’s performance.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Northrop Grumman - why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Northrop Grumman Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.