How Investors Are Reacting To Joby Aviation (JOBY) Certification Progress Amid Intensifying Urban Air Mobility Rivalry

• Joby Aviation reported further progress toward Federal Aviation Administration certification in 2025, completing over 600 test flights, starting propeller blade manufacturing, and expanding its production workforce while preparing to launch an electric air taxi service in Dubai in 2026 and targeting major U.S. cities thereafter.
• Alongside Joby’s certification and production push, rival Archer Aviation moved aggressively on infrastructure by acquiring Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles for US$126,000,000 and repurposing it as an operations hub and AI testbed, sharpening the competitive context for Joby’s urban air mobility ambitions.
• We’ll now examine how Joby’s FAA certification progress and production ramp could reshape its investment narrative over the coming years.

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What Is Joby Aviation's Investment Narrative?

To own Joby Aviation, you really have to believe that electric air taxis can move from prototype to a real, scaled service before the company runs out of financial runway. The latest update, with more than 600 flights completed, power-on testing of the first FAA-conforming aircraft, and in-house propeller production, feeds directly into the core near term catalysts: certification progress and proof that Joby can actually build aircraft at volume. At the same time, Archer’s Hawthorne Airport acquisition underlines that the race is not just about aircraft, but about infrastructure and operational readiness, which could pressure Joby if regulators or cities favor players with turnkey hubs. None of this removes the key risks already on the table: large and growing losses, continued dilution, and uncertainty over timing of meaningful commercial revenue.

However, one risk in particular could catch investors off guard if it accelerates. The valuation report we've compiled suggests that Joby Aviation's current price could be inflated.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirteen fair value views from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$0 to US$12, underlining just how far apart expectations sit. Against that backdrop, Joby’s heavy losses and reliance on future certification milestones give those differing opinions very real implications for how the story could unfold.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Joby Aviation - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Joby Aviation Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Joby Aviation research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Joby Aviation research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Joby Aviation's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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