Qifu Technology (QFIN): Reassessing Valuation After Fresh Optimism in China’s Fintech Lending Sector
Qfin Holdings (QFIN) is back on investors radar after fresh research highlighted it as a rare bright spot in China fintech, with its capital light, fee driven model standing out against broad sector pessimism.
See our latest analysis for Qfin Holdings.
Despite that upbeat narrative, the 30 day share price return of negative 14.8% and year to date share price return of negative 48.8% show sentiment is still fragile. This is true even though the 3 year total shareholder return of 28% and 5 year total shareholder return of 112.4% point to longer term value creation.
If Qfin’s story has you rethinking where growth and risk are really priced in, it might be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as another source of under the radar ideas.
So with fundamentals that look healthier than the share price implies and a steep discount to analyst targets, is Qfin simply mispriced China risk, or is the market soberly factoring in all of its future growth?
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 44.3% Undervalued
With the narrative fair value sitting at $35.55 against a last close of $19.81, the implied upside rests heavily on medium term earnings resilience.
Analysts expect earnings to reach CN¥8.4 billion (and earnings per share of CN¥64.15) by about September 2028, up from CN¥7.3 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as CN¥6.7 billion.
Curious how modest revenue expectations still point to meaningful upside? The story hinges on margins, buybacks, and a valuation multiple that quietly climbs. Want the full playbook behind that gap between today’s price and the narrative fair value?
Result: Fair Value of $35.55 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, looming APR cap decisions and soft consumer credit demand in China could quickly undermine earnings momentum and challenge that undervaluation thesis.
Find out about the key risks to this Qfin Holdings narrative.
Build Your Own Qfin Holdings Narrative
If the narrative above does not quite fit your view, or you would rather lean on your own analysis, you can build a custom one in just a few minutes, Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Qfin Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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