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    Did New AI and Drone Police Contracts Just Shift Axon Enterprise's (AXON) Investment Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·12/13/2025 16:35:44
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    • In recent weeks, Axon Enterprise has secured multi‑million‑dollar public safety technology contracts, including a US$14.3 million, nine‑year package with Rialto and a US$5.8 million agreement with Evanston for body cameras, fleet cameras, TASER upgrades, drones, and its AI‑enabled Real‑Time Crime Center platform.
    • These wins highlight how Axon’s expanding AI, drone, and software ecosystem is becoming embedded in long‑term police technology modernization plans, even as communities debate privacy and data control.
    • We’ll now explore how these long‑term AI and drone contracts with cities like Rialto and Evanston influence Axon’s existing investment narrative.

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    Axon Enterprise Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Axon, you have to believe that public safety agencies will keep shifting budgets toward integrated, cloud based tools like body cameras, TASERs, AI analytics, and drones, and that Axon can translate that demand into durable, profitable growth despite rich valuation and margin pressure. The latest multi year AI and drone contracts support the near term growth story but do not materially change the key risk, which is growing scrutiny of surveillance technology and its impact on adoption.

    Among recent developments, the US$14.3 million, nine year Rialto contract stands out because it packages Axon’s cameras, automated video analysis, license plate readers, and Drone as First Responder program into a single Officer Safety Plan 10 bundle. Deals like this directly reinforce the core catalyst of agencies upgrading to higher value, AI enabled subscriptions, while also putting Axon at the center of ongoing debates about data control and civil liberties.

    Yet behind the appeal of long term AI and drone contracts, investors should be aware of how rising privacy and regulatory pushback could...

    Read the full narrative on Axon Enterprise (it's free!)

    Axon Enterprise's narrative projects $4.6 billion revenue and $476.0 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Axon Enterprise's forecasts yield a $822.50 fair value, a 46% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AXON 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    AXON 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Nine members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate Axon’s fair value between about US$401 and US$835, reflecting very different expectations for the company. Set against that wide range, Axon’s deepening reliance on AI driven, always on policing tools raises important questions about how future regulation could influence both growth and profitability.

    Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Axon Enterprise - why the stock might be worth as much as 48% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Axon Enterprise Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.