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    The Bull Case For Mastercard (MA) Could Change Following Bigger Dividend And New Buyback Plan

    Simply Wall St·12/13/2025 18:16:28
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    • Earlier this week, Mastercard’s board raised its quarterly dividend by 14% to US$0.87 per share and authorized a new US$14.00 billion share repurchase program to follow the completion of its existing US$12.00 billion plan.
    • These larger cash returns, alongside recent partnerships that expand digital payments reach, underline how Mastercard is leaning on strong cash generation to reward shareholders while reinforcing its network.
    • Now we’ll explore how Mastercard’s larger dividend and massive new buyback authorization affect its investment narrative built around digital payments growth.

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    Mastercard Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Mastercard, I think you need to believe that card and digital payment volumes will keep shifting onto its global network, and that it can keep layering on higher margin services to that flow. The 14% dividend hike and new US$14.00 billion buyback are incremental to this story rather than a new catalyst, while the most immediate swing factor still looks like regulatory and interchange outcomes that could affect pricing and margins in the near term.

    Among the latest announcements, the TerraPay wallet partnership stands out as especially relevant, because it extends Mastercard’s reach into mobile money and fintech wallets that are central to digital payments growth in emerging markets. If wallet users can tap 150 million Mastercard acceptance points via NFC, that helps reinforce the core volume thesis even as alternative local payment rails and real time systems keep advancing.

    Yet even with Mastercard’s higher dividend and expanding wallet partnerships, investors should be aware that rising regulatory scrutiny on fees and data use could...

    Read the full narrative on Mastercard (it's free!)

    Mastercard’s narrative projects $42.6 billion revenue and $19.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 12.1% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $6.3 billion from $13.6 billion today.

    Uncover how Mastercard's forecasts yield a $656.51 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Sixteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate Mastercard’s fair value between US$512.30 and US$667.21, highlighting how far opinions can stretch around one stock. When you set those views against the risk that alternative payment rails in key emerging markets could gradually pull volume away from Mastercard’s network, it is worth exploring several of these perspectives before deciding how you see the company’s long term earnings power.

    Explore 16 other fair value estimates on Mastercard - why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Mastercard Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.