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    How Strong Q3 Results and a 2026 Outlook Could Impact Compass (COMP) Investors

    Simply Wall St·12/13/2025 19:14:50
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    • Earlier this week, Compass, Inc., the largest U.S. residential real estate brokerage, reported a strong Q3 with revenue rising 23.6% year on year and EBITDA guidance ahead of expectations, prompting several major analysts to upgrade their views on the company amid optimism about synergies from its HOUS acquisition.
    • Compass also released its first Housing Market Outlook, highlighting flattening prices, rising inventory, and improving wage-driven affordability, which together could encourage more buyers and sellers back into what it expects will be a more balanced U.S. housing market in 2026 and beyond.
    • We’ll now examine how Compass’s stronger earnings and its outlook for a more balanced 2026 housing market may influence its investment narrative.

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    Compass Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Compass, you need to believe its tech-led brokerage model can turn growing transaction volume and agent productivity into durable profits, despite housing cyclicality and commission pressure. The latest earnings beat and upbeat 2026 housing outlook reinforce the near term catalyst of rising confidence in Compass’s operating leverage, while the biggest risk remains its heavy reliance on transaction-based commissions in a market still exposed to affordability constraints and ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

    Among the recent updates, Compass’s first Housing Market Outlook feels most relevant here, because it frames how flattening prices, rising inventory, and wage-driven affordability could support future volumes that its AI-driven platform aims to capture. If that translates into steadier transaction flow over time, it could help offset some of the cyclicality that has historically made pure-play brokerages more vulnerable when housing markets slow.

    Yet against this improving tone, investors should be aware that Compass still depends heavily on transaction-based commissions and...

    Read the full narrative on Compass (it's free!)

    Compass' narrative projects $9.1 billion revenue and $275.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 13.1% yearly revenue growth and a $328.6 million earnings increase from -$53.5 million today.

    Uncover how Compass' forecasts yield a $10.22 fair value, a 5% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    COMP 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    COMP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Five Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates range from US$10.22 to US$24, highlighting how far apart individual views on Compass can be. As you weigh those opinions against Compass’s reliance on transaction-based commissions in a still-fragile housing market, it is worth exploring several alternative viewpoints before deciding how this fits into your own portfolio.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Compass - why the stock might be worth just $10.22!

    Build Your Own Compass Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Compass research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Compass research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Compass' overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.