Cadeler (OB:CADLR) Valuation Check After New EUR 60–80 Million Green Loan Boosts Growth Flexibility
Cadeler (OB:CADLR) just locked in a new unsecured green corporate term loan facility of EUR 60 million, with room to lift it to EUR 80 million. This provides the offshore wind installer with additional financial flexibility.
See our latest analysis for Cadeler.
The new green loan comes after a tough stretch, with the share price at NOK 46.32 and a year to date share price return of negative 29.17 percent. Even so, the five year total shareholder return of 88.68 percent still signals that the longer term growth story is intact, and current sentiment looks more like fading momentum than a broken thesis.
If this financing has you thinking about where else the energy transition could create winners, it might be worth exploring aerospace and defense stocks as another corner of the market shaped by shifting global priorities.
With revenue still growing, an upgraded green loan in place, and the share price trading at a steep discount to analyst targets, is Cadeler now an underappreciated energy transition pure play, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 51.4% Undervalued
According to Mandelman, the narrative fair value of Cadeler sits far above the last close of NOK 46.32, implying the market is heavily discounting its long term potential.
Given the adjusted revenue outlook, I increase expected revenue growth from 27% to 30%, projecting that Cadeler will reach EUR 1 billion in rolling 12 revenue around mid 2028, after which growth is expected to slow. Exceptional high margins are expected to normalize as indicated in the IR response above (although analysts still forecast 30 to 40%), and I reduce the net margin assumption from 27% to 22%.
Curious how double digit growth, billion euro revenues, and premium profit margins still lead to a steep discount. Want to see the exact roadmap behind that gap. Dive in.
Result: Fair Value of $95.36 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, several risks could still derail this bullish setup, including integration missteps following the Eneti merger and delays or cost overruns on new vessel deliveries.
Find out about the key risks to this Cadeler narrative.
Build Your Own Cadeler Narrative
If you see the story differently or simply want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a full narrative in minutes, Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Cadeler research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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