• EN

    • -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%

    Should Weaker Financial Metrics and Predictability Scores Require Action From Constellation Brands (STZ) Investors?

    Simply Wall St·12/13/2025 19:22:33
    Listen to the news
    • Recently released analysis highlighted that Constellation Brands’ rankings for financial strength, growth, valuation and predictability have weakened, with elevated debt levels and uncertain growth now weighing on perceptions of the business.
    • An interesting implication is that the company’s historically important reputation for consistency is under renewed scrutiny, as lower predictability scores raise fresh questions about the reliability of its future revenue and earnings trends.
    • Next, we’ll examine how these concerns about financial strength and elevated debt reshape Constellation Brands’ existing investment narrative and outlook.

    The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.

    Constellation Brands Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Constellation Brands today, you need to believe its strong beer portfolio and cash generation can offset slower growth, higher leverage and weaker predictability scores. The latest GF Score downgrade reinforces that the biggest near term risk is the company’s elevated debt load rather than any single operational issue, while the main catalyst remains management’s ability to translate its brands and capital spending into resilient earnings. For now, the news appears more confirmatory than transformational.

    The recent US$500.0 million 4.950% Senior Notes due 2035 underline how central debt financing has become to Constellation’s capital structure at a time when financial strength rankings are under pressure. In this context, ongoing share repurchases and dividends look increasingly intertwined with future cash flow delivery and the company’s room to manage tariffs, input cost inflation and slower beer growth without stretching the balance sheet further.

    Yet behind the company’s confident capital returns policy, investors should be aware of...

    Read the full narrative on Constellation Brands (it's free!)

    Constellation Brands’ narrative projects $9.7 billion revenue and $2.2 billion earnings by 2028. This implies a 1.2% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $2.6 billion from -$442.3 million today.

    Uncover how Constellation Brands' forecasts yield a $171.22 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    STZ 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    STZ 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Fourteen Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span roughly US$132 to US$333 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. When you set those against concerns about Constellation’s high debt and softer growth rankings, it is clear you are weighing very different expectations about how its balance sheet and earnings profile might shape future performance, so it is worth exploring several of these perspectives before deciding where you stand.

    Explore 14 other fair value estimates on Constellation Brands - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Constellation Brands Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    Ready To Venture Into Other Investment Styles?

    Early movers are already taking notice. See the stocks they're targeting before they've flown the coop:

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.