How Simply Good Foods’ Cautious 2026 Outlook Will Impact Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Investors

• Recently, Simply Good Foods reported past fiscal 2025 results showing 9% net sales growth and modest adjusted EBITDA growth, while completing the OWYN integration, strengthening its balance sheet, and continuing to invest in its brands under cost inflation.
• Management’s cautious fiscal 2026 outlook for flat to slightly negative net sales growth and lower gross margins contrasts with strong consumption trends for Quest and OWYN, highlighting a portfolio in transition away from pressure points at Atkins.
• We’ll now examine how the cautious 2026 outlook for flat sales and lower margins reshapes Simply Good Foods’ investment narrative.

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Simply Good Foods Investment Narrative Recap

To own Simply Good Foods, you need to believe its mix of low carb, high protein brands can compound value even as Atkins weakens and OWYN scales up. The latest results and 2026 outlook keep the near term catalyst squarely on whether Quest and OWYN consumption can offset Atkins softness, while the biggest current risk remains margin pressure from cost inflation and an intentionally slower, more investment heavy year. Management’s guidance does not materially change that near term equation.

The most relevant recent development is the completion of the OWYN integration alongside solid Quest and OWYN consumption in fiscal 2025, even as guidance points to flat to slightly negative sales and lower gross margins in 2026. This combination underscores how much the story now depends on successful execution in expanding these newer brands, while managing cost inflation and ongoing Atkins pressure without eroding profitability beyond what has been outlined.

Yet even with strong Quest and OWYN consumption, investors should be aware of how ongoing Atkins declines could still...

Read the full narrative on Simply Good Foods (it's free!)

Simply Good Foods' narrative projects $1.6 billion revenue and $204.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $58.8 million earnings increase from $145.3 million today.

Uncover how Simply Good Foods' forecasts yield a $29.70 fair value, a 57% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community valuations cluster between US$29.70 and about US$57.56 per share, highlighting how far apart individual views can be. Against that spread, management’s guide for flat to slightly negative 2026 sales and lower gross margins gives you a concrete test for whether the growth and margin recovery many investors are banking on can actually materialise.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Simply Good Foods - why the stock might be worth just $29.70!

Build Your Own Simply Good Foods Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Simply Good Foods research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Simply Good Foods research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Simply Good Foods' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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