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    Why Gemini Space Station (GEMI) Is Up 15.5% After CFTC Approval For Prediction Markets

    Simply Wall St·12/13/2025 21:21:14
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    • Earlier this week, Gemini Space Station, Inc. announced that its affiliate Gemini Titan, LLC has received long-sought CFTC approval to operate as a Designated Contract Market, allowing it to launch regulated, event-based prediction markets for U.S. customers across areas such as crypto, elections, sports, and geopolitics.
    • This five-year licensing journey marks Gemini’s entry into a tightly regulated prediction market arena previously dominated by a few incumbents, positioning its platform as a potential core building block of the company’s broader “financial super app” ambitions.
    • Next, we’ll examine how this CFTC-approved prediction market license could reshape Gemini Space Station’s investment narrative and future growth profile.

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    What Is Gemini Space Station's Investment Narrative?

    For Gemini Space Station, you really have to believe in the long-term payoff from building a full-service crypto and derivatives “super app” despite very heavy losses and a rich sales multiple. The new CFTC Designated Contract Market license for Gemini Titan is a clear short-term catalyst because it opens a regulated prediction market channel in the U.S. and helps justify the company’s higher-risk, higher-spend model, which the share price reaction has already reflected. At the same time, it reshapes the risk mix: the story now leans even more on flawless execution in a brand-new, highly supervised product set, on top of an already volatile core crypto business and significant cash burn. Investors now need to weigh this expanded opportunity against the reality that Gemini is still forecast to stay unprofitable.

    However, the license also raises fresh regulatory and execution risks that investors should not ignore. Insights from our recent valuation report point to the potential overvaluation of Gemini Space Station shares in the market.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    GEMI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    GEMI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from almost zero to US$23.70, underlining how far apart individual views sit. Against that backdrop, the new CFTC license and deep ongoing losses give you a sense of why opinions on Gemini’s future performance can diverge so sharply, and why it can pay to compare several different viewpoints before making up your mind.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Gemini Space Station - why the stock might be worth as much as 79% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Gemini Space Station Narrative

    Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.