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    Will Lam's New AI-Focused Oregon Facility Reshape Lam Research's (LRCX) Next-Gen Chipmaking Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·12/13/2025 22:22:31
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    • In recent days, Lam Research expanded its Tualatin, Oregon site with a new US$65 million facility and highlighted strong demand for its advanced etch, deposition, and packaging tools tied to AI-driven chip production for customers like TSMC and Samsung.
    • This combination of capacity expansion, AI-focused product momentum, and supportive analyst commentary underlines how Lam is positioning itself at the center of next-generation semiconductor manufacturing.
    • With Lam’s new Oregon facility supporting AI-oriented tools, we’ll now examine how this development influences the company’s existing investment narrative.

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    Lam Research Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Lam Research, I think you need to believe that AI-driven demand will keep pulling through more complex chip architectures, lifting etch and deposition intensity across leading-edge fabs. The new US$65 million Oregon expansion slightly reinforces that thesis by adding R&D and customer support capacity, but it does not materially change the key near term catalyst, which remains AI-related wafer fab equipment spend, or the main near term risk around volatile memory and China-dependent orders.

    The most relevant recent announcement, in my view, is Lam’s disclosure that 2024 shipments for gate all around nodes and advanced packaging exceeded US$1 billion, with management expecting this to triple in 2025. This ties directly to the AI and high bandwidth memory buildout that underpins the current order cycle, but also heightens the company’s exposure if those AI related investments or broader WFE budgets were to suddenly cool.

    But while AI demand is powerful, investors should also be aware that Lam’s heavy reliance on a few major foundry and memory customers...

    Read the full narrative on Lam Research (it's free!)

    Lam Research's narrative projects $23.6 billion revenue and $6.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.3 billion earnings increase from $5.4 billion today.

    Uncover how Lam Research's forecasts yield a $160.30 fair value, in line with its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    LRCX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    LRCX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Fourteen members of the Simply Wall St Community value Lam Research between US$67 and US$160. Many focus on AI driven catalysts, yet customer concentration and WFE cyclicality could still reshape future outcomes, so it is worth comparing several viewpoints.

    Explore 14 other fair value estimates on Lam Research - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own Lam Research Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.