Earnings Miss: Ain Holdings Inc. Missed EPS By 35% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Shareholders might have noticed that Ain Holdings Inc. (TSE:9627) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.5% to JP¥6,579 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥73.02, some 35% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥300b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Ain Holdings' six analysts is for revenues of JP¥647.8b in 2026. This would reflect a solid 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 28% to JP¥383. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥648.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥382 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Ain Holdings
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥7,650. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Ain Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥9,600 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥6,100. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ain Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 43% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ain Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥7,650, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ain Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Ain Holdings you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.