CICC: First deposit to reshape energy (02570) “outperform the industry” rating target price of HK$84.63
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that for the first time, it covered reshaping energy (02570) to give it an outperforming industry rating. The target price was HK$84.63. Based on the P/S valuation method, the corresponding valuation multiplier was 7 x 2026 P/S. The company's EPS for 25-26 is expected to be -6.0 yuan/-4.7 yuan, respectively. The bank expects the company's 25-26 year revenue of 67/980 million, giving 26 years 7x P/S, corresponding to HK$84.63, and the current stock price corresponding to 5.9 x 26-year P/S. There is 17.5% upside. The bank believes that as a fuel cell leader, the company is expanding market-based applications such as heavy trucks and off-grid overcharging piles, and has great potential for long-term development. Potential future catalysts include the introduction of hydrogen energy support policies by the country and sales volume in the fuel cell industry.
CICC's main views are as follows:
Fuel cells cut costs quickly, and the long-term space is considerable
The bank believes that fuel cells are in a stage of rapid technological progress and cost reduction, and it is expected that the full life cycle cost of fuel cell heavy trucks will gradually become affordable after 2028. According to Sullivan's forecast, global fuel cell vehicle sales may reach 426,000 units in 2028, and the CAGR will reach 97.5% in 2023-2028.
Reshaping energy as a leading fuel cell company in China. The bank believes that the company has the following advantages
1) The company has leading industry share (18% market share in 24 years), with R&D expenses far exceeding peers, leading the industry in technology; 2) self-developed and self-produced electric stacks/membrane electrodes/bipolar plates to continue to promote the localization of core components; 3) Deeply cultivate heavy truck tracks (42% industry share in 23 years) and continue to expand market-based scenarios such as low-cost hydrogen; 4) Based on the layout of electrolyzers and fuel cells, it provides overall solutions for end-to-end hydrogen energy.
Lay out electrolyzers and off-grid supercharging piles to accelerate the development of overseas business and open up room for long-term growth
In 2023, the company launched a series of products such as PEM electrolyzers and membrane electrodes, which have strong technical synergy. In 2024, the company launched off-grid overcharging pile products, which can be applied to high-speed, tourist attractions and other scenarios to reduce power capacity expansion pressure. In 2024, the company's sales of non-automotive fuel cell systems exceeded 54 million yuan, +133% over the same period last year. At the same time, the company is speeding up overseas business expansion. Overseas fuel cell systems will account for 9% of revenue in 2024, and the future is expected to usher in accelerated development.
Risk warning: Policy support falls short of expectations, technological progress in the industry falls short of expectations, continuous losses, intense price competition, overseas business development falls short of expectations, risk of depreciation of accounts receivable, risk of dependency on major customers, and risk of large lifting of the ban.