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    Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) Valuation Check After Upbeat Q3 Earnings, Guidance Hike and Store Expansion Plans

    Simply Wall St·12/15/2025 05:14:02
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    Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) just delivered a Q3 update that combined steady growth with a busier store rollout, lifting full-year guidance even as sales came in slightly below expectations.

    See our latest analysis for Academy Sports and Outdoors.

    The Q3 beat on profits, brisk store openings, and a fresh dividend declaration have helped flip sentiment. A strong 30 day share price return of 24.11% contrasts with a muted 1 year total shareholder return of 1.98%, suggesting momentum is rebuilding after a softer year.

    If this mix of steady execution and renewed momentum appeals to you, it might be worth exploring how other retailers and consumer names stack up using fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    With shares still trading at a noticeable discount to some intrinsic value estimates but now sitting just shy of analyst price targets, investors face a key question: Is Academy still mispriced, or does the stock already reflect its next leg of growth?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 6.1% Undervalued

    With Academy Sports and Outdoors last closing at $55.50 versus a narrative fair value of about $59.10, the story leans toward modest upside rooted in fundamentals.

    The analysts have a consensus price target of $57.5 for Academy Sports and Outdoors based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $70.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $47.0.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how steady revenue gains, slight margin expansion, shrinking share count and a specific future earnings multiple all combine into this fair value call? The tension between moderate growth assumptions and a richer long term valuation story is not obvious at first glance. Want to see exactly which forward earnings path and discount rate make this upside add up, and how far expectations stretch beyond today’s share price? Dive in to unpack the full narrative.

    Result: Fair Value of $59.10 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this upside depends on higher income shoppers staying resilient and on Academy managing rising tariffs and promotional pressure without eroding margins.

    Find out about the key risks to this Academy Sports and Outdoors narrative.

    Build Your Own Academy Sports and Outdoors Narrative

    If you would rather dig into the numbers yourself or challenge this storyline, you can quickly build a personalized view in minutes using Do it your way.

    A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Academy Sports and Outdoors.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    Before you move on, you might want to explore a few high potential themes on Simply Wall Street that many investors overlook.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.