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    Did Saia’s (SAIA) Q4 Freight Volatility Recast Its Margin-Focused Investment Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·12/15/2025 14:19:38
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    • In December 2025, Saia, Inc. reported operating results for the first two months of its fourth quarter, showing an October LTL shipments per workday decline of 3.4% and tonnage decline of 3.3%, followed by a November rebound with shipments up 2.6% and tonnage up 1.8% year over year.
    • The contrasting October softness and November pickup, alongside only marginal changes in weight per shipment, highlight how quickly Saia’s freight mix and volumes can shift within a single quarter.
    • We’ll now explore how November’s shipment and tonnage recovery, following October weakness, may influence Saia’s cost-efficiency and margin-focused investment narrative.

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    Saia Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Saia, you need to believe its growing national LTL network and technology investments can translate into cost-efficient, profitable volume over time, despite recent earnings pressure and softer returns. The October and November shipment swings are informative, but not a material change to the key near term catalyst, which is whether higher volumes can flow through a now larger, higher cost network without eroding margins, or whether expense inflation and underutilization remain the dominant risk.

    The most relevant recent announcement here is Saia’s Q3 2025 earnings, where net income and EPS declined year over year even as year to date revenue edged higher. Putting that next to November’s recovery in shipments and tonnage helps frame the central question for investors: can incremental volume in a maturing network offset rising labor, insurance and expansion costs before overextension and weaker margins become harder to reverse...

    Read the full narrative on Saia (it's free!)

    Saia's narrative projects $3.9 billion revenue and $456.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 6.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $166.6 million earnings increase from $290.1 million today.

    Uncover how Saia's forecasts yield a $326.81 fair value, a 5% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SAIA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SAIA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place Saia’s fair value between US$123.70 and US$326.81, highlighting how far apart views can be. When you compare that spread with concerns about aggressive capital expenditure and potential overextension, it underlines why it can be useful to explore several alternative viewpoints before forming your own.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Saia - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own Saia Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Saia research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Saia research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Saia's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.