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    Moderna (MRNA) Is Up 5.3% After EU Panel Backs Next-Gen COVID Shot mNEXSPIKE - What's Changed

    Simply Wall St·12/15/2025 19:19:57
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    • Earlier this week, Moderna received a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use recommending EU marketing authorization for its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine mNEXSPIKE, which showed higher relative efficacy than its original shot in a Phase 3 trial.
    • This regulatory milestone, if converted into full approval, could help Moderna extend the commercial life of its COVID franchise while reinforcing its mRNA platform’s relevance in an era of waning pandemic-era demand.
    • We’ll now examine how this EU regulatory progress for mNEXSPIKE may influence Moderna’s existing investment narrative around pipeline diversification and future earnings.

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    Moderna Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Moderna, I think you have to believe its mRNA platform can evolve from a largely COVID dependent story into a broader, multi product vaccine and therapeutics portfolio, while it works back toward profitability. The positive EU opinion for mNEXSPIKE supports that narrative, but it does not remove the immediate catalyst and risk focus, which still centers on converting late stage respiratory filings into approvals and managing revenue pressure from declining COVID sales and intense competition.

    In that context, the recent US$500 million license and option agreement with Nanexa to enhance long acting injectable delivery is worth watching. While separate from mNEXSPIKE, it sits alongside the next generation COVID and respiratory filings as part of Moderna’s attempt to deepen its technology toolkit and broaden future product opportunities at a time when revenue volatility and cost cuts are front of mind.

    However, beneath these opportunities, investors should also be aware of rising regulatory scrutiny around vaccine safety and pricing, which could...

    Read the full narrative on Moderna (it's free!)

    Moderna’s narrative projects $3.5 billion revenue and $498.6 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Moderna's forecasts yield a $35.78 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MRNA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MRNA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Twenty six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$35 to US$175 per share, showing just how far apart views can be. Against that backdrop, the risk that COVID and broader respiratory vaccine revenues fail to stabilize remains central to how sustainably Moderna can grow its top line and eventually move out of persistent losses.

    Explore 26 other fair value estimates on Moderna - why the stock might be worth just $35.37!

    Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Moderna research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Moderna research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moderna's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.