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    Is Mexico’s New Auto Tariff Policy Quietly Stress‑Testing Nissan (TSE:7201)’s Export‑Led Strategy?

    Simply Wall St·12/15/2025 23:15:42
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    • Earlier this month, Mexico moved to raise import tariffs on cars to as high as 50%, a policy shift that threatens exporters such as Nissan Motor, Volkswagen, Hyundai and Maruti Suzuki that supply the Mexican market from India.
    • This tariff push, framed as a way to protect Mexican jobs and manufacturing while responding to U.S. pressure over Chinese trade ties, puts fresh focus on how vulnerable Nissan’s global export model is to abrupt policy changes in key growth markets.
    • We’ll now explore how Mexico’s steep planned import tariffs, and the pressure they create on Nissan’s export economics, affect its investment narrative.

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    Nissan Motor Investment Narrative Recap

    Nissan still appeals to shareholders who believe it can turn persistent losses and weak cash flow into a sustainable recovery, helped by cost cuts and EV expansion. Mexico’s planned 50% car import tariffs directly challenge Nissan’s emerging market export story, but the most immediate swing factor remains whether management can stem operating losses and negative free cash flow over the next few quarters.

    The upcoming presentation at the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference, where Nissan will showcase EV battery research, ties into its key catalyst of accelerated EV launches in core markets. While this event does not offset tariff and currency risks, it matters for investors watching how Nissan aims to support future margins and differentiate its products as global electrification and regulatory pressures advance.

    Yet while the Mexico tariff move highlights policy and currency exposure investors should be aware of...

    Read the full narrative on Nissan Motor (it's free!)

    Nissan Motor’s narrative projects ¥12,909.5 billion in revenue and ¥203.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This implies 1.5% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of roughly ¥1,018.5 billion from ¥-815.2 billion today.

    Uncover how Nissan Motor's forecasts yield a ¥336 fair value, a 18% downside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TSE:7201 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSE:7201 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Nissan range widely, from ¥28.20 to ¥420.00 per share, underscoring how differently investors view its prospects. You should weigh that spread against the very real pressure from tariffs and foreign exchange swings, which could influence how quickly any turnaround in earnings might show up in reported results.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Nissan Motor - why the stock might be worth as much as ¥420!

    Build Your Own Nissan Motor Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.