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    Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO): Reassessing a Rich Valuation After Positive Orelabrutinib Lupus Trial Milestones

    Simply Wall St·12/16/2025 03:20:46
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    Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO) jumped into focus after partner InnoCare reported that orelabrutinib hit its primary endpoint in a Phase 2b lupus study, and Chinese regulators cleared a Phase 3 registrational trial.

    See our latest analysis for Zenas BioPharma.

    Despite the sharp 1 day share price return of negative 19.7 percent and recent pullback, Zenas still sits at 32.59 dollars after a powerful year to date share price return of 261.7 percent and a 1 year total shareholder return of 271.6 percent. This suggests momentum has cooled, but the longer term rerating remains substantial as investors weigh fresh lupus data against execution and funding risks.

    If this kind of clinical catalyst has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore other innovative healthcare stocks that might be next in line for a rerating.

    With revenue still tiny, losses widening and the share price sitting well below analysts’ targets, investors now face a key question: is Zenas an underappreciated growth story, or has the market already priced in its next leg higher?

    Price to Book of 8.9x, is it justified?

    On a price-to-book basis, Zenas looks expensive at 8.9 times, especially with shares at 32.59 dollars and peers trading on much lower multiples.

    The price to book ratio compares the company’s market value with its net assets, a common yardstick in biotech where profits are often years away.

    For Zenas, an 8.9 times price-to-book ratio versus 2.7 times for the broader US biotech industry and 5 times for peers suggests investors are paying a steep premium for its pipeline and projected growth. With no profits expected over the next three years and losses still widening, that premium implies high confidence that future clinical and commercial milestones will convert today’s assets into much larger earnings power over time.

    Relative to both the industry and closer peers, this valuation stands out as punchy, signaling that the market is assigning Zenas a leadership-style narrative rather than a typical early stage biotech profile.

    See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    Result: Price-to-book of 8.9x (OVERVALUED)

    However, sustained losses and heavy reliance on positive trial outcomes mean any clinical setback or financing stumble could rapidly unwind Zenas’ premium valuation.

    Find out about the key risks to this Zenas BioPharma narrative.

    Build Your Own Zenas BioPharma Narrative

    If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Zenas BioPharma research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Ready for your next high potential idea?

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.