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    What Global Business Travel Group (GBTG)'s Earnings Beat and Institutional Buying Means For Shareholders

    Simply Wall St·12/16/2025 23:27:57
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    • In the past quarter, American Express Global Business Travel reported revenue growth of 12.9% year over year, significantly beating analyst expectations on both revenue and EBITDA, and standing out among finance and HR software peers.
    • At the same time, institutional ownership deepened as Ares Management increased its Global Business Travel Group stake to about 13.9 million shares, making it one of Ares’ larger positions.
    • Now we’ll explore how this strong revenue beat and rising institutional ownership could influence Global Business Travel Group’s existing investment narrative.

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    Global Business Travel Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Global Business Travel Group, you need to believe corporate travel can keep expanding profitably while GBTG scales through technology and acquisitions like CWT. The latest revenue beat reinforces the growth side of that story, but the EPS miss keeps execution and margin pressure as the key short term risk. Rising institutional ownership, led by Ares, supports the existing narrative but does not materially change those near term catalysts or the integration and cost discipline risks.

    The recent Q3 2025 results, with US$674 million in sales and a narrowed full year revenue guidance of US$2.705 billion to US$2.725 billion, are most relevant here. They tie directly into the growth catalyst of higher travel volumes and efficiency gains while also highlighting that profitability is still catching up, which is crucial as the CWT integration and higher sales and marketing spend could test margins in the quarters ahead.

    Yet investors should be aware that higher digital mix and pressure on revenue yields could...

    Read the full narrative on Global Business Travel Group (it's free!)

    Global Business Travel Group's narrative projects $2.8 billion revenue and $324.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 5.0% yearly revenue growth and a $381.4 million earnings increase from -$57.0 million today.

    Uncover how Global Business Travel Group's forecasts yield a $10.86 fair value, a 37% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    GBTG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    GBTG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    The Simply Wall St Community’s single fair value estimate sits at US$21.46, far above recent trading levels, underscoring how differently individual investors can view GBTG’s potential. Set this against the current focus on margin pressure and the upcoming CWT integration, and you can see why it pays to examine several contrasting views on how that growth and risk balance could affect future performance.

    Explore another fair value estimate on Global Business Travel Group - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Global Business Travel Group Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.