Huaxi Securities: Anti-dumping ruling on imported pork from the EU has been implemented and continues to recommend the pig breeding sector
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaxi Securities released a research report saying that the implementation of anti-dumping duties is expected to partially ease domestic supply pressure, combine loss-driven active capacity removal and policy-guided passive capacity removal at the same time. They are optimistic about price reversals brought about by capacity removal, and continue to recommend the pig breeding sector. In terms of specific target selection, it is recommended to focus on high-quality targets with low cost, low debt, and growth. Lihua (300761.SH), which is the first to promote flexible targets; in addition, Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714.SH) and Shuanghui Development (000985.SH) will also benefit.
Huaxi Securities's main views are as follows:
Incidents
On December 16, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the final ruling on the anti-dumping investigation against imports of pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union. The final finding was that there was dumping of imported pork and pig by-products from the European Union. The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council made a decision based on the recommendation of the Ministry of Commerce to levy anti-dumping duties on imports of pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union starting December 17, 2025. The anti-dumping duty rate is 4.9%-19.8%.
The EU is an important source of pork imports in China, accounting for more than 50% of imports in the first three quarters
In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 1.93 million tons of related pork and pig by-products, of which 990,000 tons were imported from the European Union, accounting for 51%. The EU member country Spain was China's largest importer of pork and by-products. In the first ten months, it imported 460,000 tons, accounting for 24%. In the first three quarters, China produced 43.68 million tons of pork, 1.76 million tons of pork and by-products, accounting for 4% of production. The EU imported 910,000 tons, accounting for 51.49% of imports and 2.08% of total output. The implementation of the anti-dumping ruling is expected to partially ease the pressure on domestic pork supply.
Active and passive decontamination are being promoted together, and capacity removal is expected to accelerate
On the domestic side, pig prices continue to be sluggish, breeding losses have increased, and losses have deepened. According to Wind data, since mid-September, China's self-breeding pig breeding has continued to lose money. As of the 2nd week of December, it has been losing more than 160 yuan per head for 13 weeks; in the 2nd week of December, the losses in outsourced piglet breeding have been longer and larger. Since this year, profits have only been around 8 weeks, and losses have exceeded 200 yuan per head since the 2nd week of November. As of the 2nd week of December, the average loss this year was over 100 yuan/head.
In terms of piglets, the price of piglets has continued to drop since May, from close to 40 yuan/kg to 23.43 yuan/kg. According to the calculation, the price of 7 kg weaned piglets is less than 200 yuan/head. Currently, the overall motivation for weaned piglets is weak. Currently, mainstream listed companies cost 250 yuan/head, and overall piglets have lost money. Active capacity removal due to losses is ongoing, and is affected by the combination of low temperature environments in winter, conflicts between ventilation and insulation, optimization of pathogen survival conditions, and changes in pig herd autoimmunity. Winter is a period of high incidence of swine disease. The bank believes that the current loss situation will affect farmers' enthusiasm for fine management and the quantity and quality of investment in animal protection products, and active removal of production capacity is expected to accelerate. Since May, relevant departments have continued to promote the high-quality development of the pig industry, and results have been achieved in reducing production capacity. Active capacity removal was promoted jointly with passive capacity removal under policy guidance. In October, production capacity fell below 40 million heads to 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 1.1% over the previous month.
Risk Alerts
The regulatory progress of breeding sows falls short of expectations, the risk of pig disease, the risk of falling short of expectations in consumption, the risk of environmental policy changes, and the risk of raw material price fluctuations.