Northwest Bancshares (NWBI): Assessing Valuation After a Recent 8% One-Month Share Price Rebound
Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) has quietly outperformed many regional peers over the past month, gaining about 8% while still sitting on a modest loss year to date. This makes the recent move worth unpacking.
See our latest analysis for Northwest Bancshares.
That recent 8% one month share price return has started to reverse some of Northwest Bancshares year to date weakness, and with the 5 year total shareholder return above 40%, the current 12.71 dollar share price suggests momentum is quietly rebuilding as investors reassess its earnings and risk profile.
If this kind of steady regional bank move has you rethinking your watchlist, it might be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot bolder growth stories alongside NWBI.
With earnings and net income growing faster than the share price, and the stock still trading at a hefty intrinsic discount, is Northwest Bancshares now a quietly undervalued regional bank, or has the market already priced in its next leg of growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 5% Undervalued
With Northwest Bancshares last closing at 12.71 dollars against a narrative fair value near 13.38 dollars, the valuation case hinges on aggressive but coordinated growth assumptions.
The analysts have a consensus price target of 13.375 dollars for Northwest Bancshares based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you would need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be 909.9 million dollars, earnings will come to 249.6 million dollars, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Curious how a regional bank gets tagged with this kind of upside, without stretching its future profit multiple beyond sector norms? The narrative leans on compounding revenue growth, expanding margins, and a deliberate reset in earnings power that has to materialize on schedule. Want to see the exact earnings ramp and valuation bridge behind that fair value call, and how sensitive it is to just a few key assumptions? Dive in to unpack the full playbook.
Result: Fair Value of $13.38 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, slower growth across key Midwestern markets and elevated credit risks in multifamily and C&I loans could quickly undermine that modest upside.
Find out about the key risks to this Northwest Bancshares narrative.
Another Take on Valuation
Not everyone will buy the idea that Northwest Bancshares is materially undervalued. On a simple price to earnings view, the stock trades at 16.4 times versus 12 times for both US banks and close peers, and above a 15.8 times fair ratio, suggesting investors may already be paying a premium, not getting a bargain. Is that premium justified by execution on growth and integration, or is it setting up valuation risk if the story wobbles?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Build Your Own Northwest Bancshares Narrative
If this view does not quite fit your own or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized version in under three minutes, Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Northwest Bancshares research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Looking for more investment ideas?
Before you move on, lock in a few fresh ideas by putting the Simply Wall St Screener to work so you are not relying on just one story.
- Capture high-potential names trading below their estimated worth by scanning these 915 undervalued stocks based on cash flows and build a watchlist positioned for valuation upside.
- Ride the structural shift toward automation and smart infrastructure with these 26 AI penny stocks, where growth is powered by real world demand for intelligent technology.
- Strengthen your income strategy through these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, targeting companies that combine attractive yields with the fundamentals to keep paying through market cycles.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com