Is It Too Late To Consider Lattice Semiconductor After Its Strong 2025 Share Price Rally?
- If you are wondering whether Lattice Semiconductor at around $74.50 is still a smart buy or if most of the upside is already priced in, you are not alone, and that is exactly what we are going to unpack here.
- The stock has slipped about 4.4% over the last week, but it is still up 16.1% over the past month and 33.2% year to date, adding to a longer term gain of 70.4% over five years that has investors asking what comes next.
- Recent headlines have focused on Lattice's positioning in low power FPGA solutions for AI at the edge and industrial applications, highlighting design wins and product launches that aim to capture rising demand for efficient computation. At the same time, analysts have been revisiting their long term growth assumptions for the broader semiconductor space as AI, data center, and communications infrastructure spending evolve.
- Despite that backdrop, Lattice currently scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks, which means it does not screen as undervalued on any of our standard metrics. Next we will dig into those valuation approaches and then finish with a more complete way of thinking about what the stock is really worth.
Lattice Semiconductor scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Lattice Semiconductor Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock might be worth by projecting the company’s future cash flows and then discounting those back to today’s dollars. For Lattice Semiconductor, this 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts with last twelve month free cash flow of about $128.4 million and builds in analyst forecasts followed by more conservative long term assumptions.
Analysts see free cash flow rising to roughly $204.6 million in 2026 and $249.2 million by 2027, with Simply Wall St extrapolating further out to around $437.5 million in 2035. All of these figures are translated into today’s value and summed to reach an intrinsic value estimate of about $31.03 per share.
Compared with the recent share price around $74.50, the DCF suggests Lattice is roughly 140.1% overvalued on these cash flow projections, implying investors are paying far above what the current growth outlook supports.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Lattice Semiconductor may be overvalued by 140.1%. Discover 909 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Approach 2: Lattice Semiconductor Price vs Sales
For profitable, growing chipmakers, the price to sales ratio is a useful way to compare how much investors are paying for each dollar of revenue, especially when earnings can be temporarily distorted by heavy investment cycles. Higher growth and lower perceived risk usually justify a higher sales multiple, while slower or more uncertain growth should command a lower one.
Lattice currently trades at about 20.59x sales, which is well above the broader Semiconductor industry average of roughly 5.34x and also ahead of its peer group average of about 11.71x. To move beyond simple comparisons, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary Fair Ratio, which estimates what a reasonable price to sales multiple should be after considering Lattice’s growth outlook, profitability, industry, market cap and specific risks. This Fair Ratio for Lattice is 9.00x, suggesting that, once you adjust for those fundamentals, the stock’s current 20.59x valuation looks rich rather than merely reflecting strong prospects.
Result: OVERVALUED
PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1463 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Lattice Semiconductor Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework that lets you write the story behind your numbers by connecting your view of a company’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a clear fair value estimate. A Narrative on Simply Wall St is an easy, accessible tool on the Community page where millions of investors outline what they think will drive a business, translate that story into a financial forecast, and then compare the resulting Fair Value to today’s share price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. Crucially, Narratives update dynamically as new information like earnings, guidance or major news comes in, so your view of Lattice Semiconductor does not stay static while the world moves on. For example, one investor might build a bullish Lattice Narrative that assumes strong AI driven growth and justifies a fair value near the high end of recent targets around $79, while a more cautious investor stresses auto and macro risks and lands closer to the low $52 range, and comparing those perspectives helps you decide which story you believe.
Do you think there's more to the story for Lattice Semiconductor? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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