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To own Certara, you need to believe biosimulation will keep gaining traction with regulators and pharma, and that Certara can turn that into durable, higher margin software and services revenue. The incoming CEO from IQVIA does not immediately change the most important near term catalyst, which is execution on the AI enabled MIDD and QSP platform rollout, but it could matter over time for how effectively Certara converts that opportunity and manages rising R&D and integration spending risk.
The recent appointment of Christopher Bouton as Chief Technology Officer, with a remit to drive Certara’s next generation, generative AI powered MIDD platform, is most relevant here, as it underscores the company’s commitment to AI enabled biosimulation just as an experienced healthcare data executive is set to take over as CEO. How well this tech roadmap translates into customer adoption and ROI will be central to whether the current product and acquisition investments pay off.
Yet investors also need to be aware that customer adoption of new AI driven biosimulation tools could prove slower and more uneven than...
Read the full narrative on Certara (it's free!)
Certara's narrative projects $519.5 million revenue and $7.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 8.6% yearly revenue growth and a $0.6 million earnings decrease from $8.0 million today.
Uncover how Certara's forecasts yield a $13.21 fair value, a 53% upside to its current price.
Two Simply Wall St Community members see fair value for Certara between US$13.21 and US$18.55, compared with a current price near US$8.66. Against this backdrop, the key question is whether its AI enabled biosimulation platforms and new leadership can overcome pharma budget caution and adoption risk, so it is worth reviewing several different views before forming a conclusion.
Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Certara - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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