CICC's 2026 Food and Beverage Outlook: The bottom line is nearing completion, focusing on high-quality growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that the food and beverage industry has entered a new normal since the beginning of the year, the overall consumption environment is still weak, and the trend of the industry's pursuit of high quality and price ratio, functionality, health, and emotional consumption continues. Demand in the liquor industry has continued to be weak since the beginning of the year. Combined with the introduction of new regulations, both sides of the liquor supply and demand sides have experienced drastic adjustments, popular food performance has been divided, and drinks and casual snacks have shown a good boom. Looking ahead to next year, the industry will continue the trend of weak recovery and strong differentiation. Growth will depend more on enterprise-side product innovation efforts, fragmented channel layout, and crowd expansion. Enterprises with strong brand power, product innovation, channel control, and excellent supply chain efficiency will be able to cross the cycle and achieve high-quality growth.

CICC's main views are as follows:

Liquor reports are expected to improve, and the first half of the year may reach an inflection point. It is expected that the 2026 liquor report will improve, and the upward inflection point will gradually become clear. The impact of demand-side policies will continue to weaken. The consumption scenario will usher in a steady recovery on the basis of drastic suppression. At the same time, deepening consumption policies is expected to drive up demand. Under this year's low base, the year-on-year correction is expected. It is expected that the industry will begin a gradual recovery starting in the first half of the year. On the supply side, innovation and expansion are the main line. It is expected that hidden inventory risks will be basically eliminated. Among them, innovation based on user demand is expected to increase further, and more companies will embrace online channels such as instant retail.

Overall demand for popular food has stabilized at a low level, sub-sector performance is divided, and consumption trends in quality-price ratio, health and emotional value continue. Looking ahead to 26, the demand side is expected to stabilize at a low level. Potential consumption policies may stimulate a moderate recovery in demand, and it is expected that the price ratio, health and emotional value consumption style will continue, and the overall scale of the snack, soft drink and other industries will expand; leading supply-side companies focus on improving business quality, judging that leading traditional consumer goods companies in '26 are expected to achieve a moderate recovery on the revenue side and improved profit margins due to improved efficiency after the fundamentals are built.

risk

Demand picked up more slowly than expected, raw material prices fluctuated, and competition in sub-sector markets intensified.