Great Wall Securities: The emergency disrupted the supply side and is optimistic that potash prices will rise further
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Great Wall Securities released a research report saying that recently, the major potash manufacturer Mosaic had an impact on the supply of potash. The impact of the underground collapse accident varied. It may affect the release of production capacity in mining areas in the short term, and the medium- to long-term effects still need further evaluation. If production capacity stops, global supply and demand may tighten, which is beneficial to the rise in potash prices. Under supply-side disturbances, there is still room for potash prices to rise in the short term. It is recommended to focus on domestic potash suppliers such as Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ), and Oriental Tower (002545.SZ).
The main views of Great Wall Securities are as follows:
Sudden incidents among major potash manufacturers have had an impact on potash supply, which is expected to drive up potash prices
According to the official Potash Express account, on December 16, the North American fertilizer manufacturer Mosaic suspended potash production operations in Esterhazy (Esterhazy), Saskatchewan today. Earlier, an “underground collapse” accident occurred in the K3 underground mining area in Esterhazy (Esterhazy), resulting in the death of an employee.
The Esterhazy mining area (Esterhazy) has a potash production capacity of 7.8 million tons/year. Of its three K1, K2 and K3 mines, the K3 mine was completed in 2022. According to USGS data, the world's annual potash production capacity in 2024 was 65.2 million tons (K2O minus K2O), which is calculated to account for 11.96% of the potash production capacity in the Esterhazy mine. The extent of the impact of the underground collapse accident varies. It may affect the release of production capacity in the mining area in the short term. The medium- to long-term effects still need to be further assessed. If production capacity stops, global supply and demand may tighten, which is beneficial to the rise in potash prices.
China's large potash contract has been signed, which supports the price
On November 23, 2025, the Chinese potash import negotiation team and Food Safety Supply Chain Co., Ltd. (Dubai) reached an agreement on the 2026 annual potash import contract price. The contract price was 348 US dollars/ton (CFR), up 2 US dollars/ton from last year. The early signing of the 2026 contract price for potash fertilizer reflects expectations of rising potash fertilizer prices, which supports the price of potash fertilizer.
Affected by winter storage demand, potash prices still have room to rise
The potassium chloride market is still in a tight balance between supply and demand in the short term. Affected by cost support and demand for winter fertilizer reserves, the price of potassium chloride mostly remains high, and the supply of some varieties is still tight. According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of December 16, the price of potassium chloride was 3,272 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous month and 28.82% from last year.
It is recommended to focus on the target
Salt Lake Co., Ltd. has a complete set of mature potassium chloride processing technology and the world's leading large-scale production technology for salt lake lithium extraction. It has formed a potash production capacity of 5 million tons/year, ranking fourth in the world in terms of production capacity. 1H25 Salt Lake Co., Ltd. produced 1.989,800 tons of potassium chloride, down 11.76% year on year; sales volume was 1.777,900 tons, down 20.51% year on year.
Potash International has a production capacity of 2 million tons/potassium chloride, and the second and third 1 million tons/year potash fertilizer projects have all entered the late stages of mining construction. The international production of 1H25 potassium chloride was 1.014,400 tons, up 20.00% year on year; sales volume was 1.0454 million tons, up 21.42% year on year.
Laos Kaiyuan, an overseas subsidiary of Oriental Tower, has 133 square kilometer potash mineral rights in Khammouane Province, Laos, with a pure potassium chloride resource reserve of more than 400 million tons. It already has 1 million tons/potassium chloride production capacity (including 400,000 tons of granular potassium per year)/and 9,000 tons/year of sodium bromide production capacity. The company continues to accelerate the construction of the next 1 million tons/year potash fertilizer project. 1H25 produces 596,900 tons of potassium chloride and sells 597,400 tons.
Risk Alerts
Potassium chloride price fluctuation risk; geopolitical risk; production safety risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk.