Ingevity (NGVT): Reassessing Valuation After Leadership Changes and Ongoing Share Buyback Progress
Ingevity (NGVT) just paired a planned finance and operations shake up with an update on its share buyback progress, a combination that gives investors fresh context for judging the stock’s recent run.
See our latest analysis for Ingevity.
Those leadership moves and the buyback progress are landing in a market that has already pushed Ingevity’s share price up sharply, with a year to date share price return of 47.37 percent and a 1 year total shareholder return of 42.99 percent, which hints that momentum is building again despite a weaker 3 year and 5 year total shareholder return.
If this mix of restructuring and renewed momentum has your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is shaping up among fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
With the stock still trading below analyst targets and screens flagging a steep intrinsic discount despite recent gains, the real question now is whether Ingevity remains a mispriced value, or if the market is already baking in a turnaround.
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 14.6% Undervalued
With Ingevity closing at 58.27 dollars against a narrative fair value of 68.25 dollars, the current price still sits below the long term upside case.
Substantial investments in innovation and engineered additives, especially in applications such as EV battery materials (via the Nexeon partnership) and process purification, position Ingevity to capture new demand arising from the increased global focus on sustainability and decarbonization, providing future top-line growth opportunities as industries transition to green technologies.
Want to see what sits behind that battery materials pivot? The narrative leans on a sharp earnings swing and a future multiple that might surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $68.25 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, prolonged APT weakness and tariff driven demand disruptions could undercut earnings recovery and delay the upside that battery materials are meant to unlock.
Find out about the key risks to this Ingevity narrative.
Another Lens on Value
Our SWS DCF model indicates a much stronger upside than the analyst narrative and suggests that Ingevity trades about 67 percent below its fair value of 177.49 dollars. If that long term cash flow view is closer to reality than today’s cautious targets, is the market still mispricing the turnaround story?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Build Your Own Ingevity Narrative
If you see the story differently, or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in minutes by using Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Ingevity research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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