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    Is Morgan Stanley’s Upgrade and Asset Moves Altering The Investment Case For Spire (SR)?

    Simply Wall St·12/18/2025 14:10:38
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    • Morgan Stanley recently upgraded Spire Inc. to Overweight, pointing to expectations of above-average earnings growth, improving regulatory conditions, and potential value from asset sales including its storage business.
    • An interesting angle for investors is how this upgrade comes alongside Spire’s ongoing multi-hundred-million-dollar infrastructure program and steady dividend growth, which together may influence perceptions of the company’s long-term resilience.
    • We’ll now examine how Morgan Stanley’s increased confidence in Spire’s earnings outlook could reshape the company’s existing investment narrative.

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    Spire Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Spire, you need to believe its regulated gas utility model and large, ongoing infrastructure spend can justify steady earnings and dividend growth despite policy, ESG, and demand headwinds. Morgan Stanley’s upgrade, tied to expected EPS outperformance and regulatory tailwinds, appears most relevant to the near term, while the key risk remains regulatory lag or disallowances on that heavy capital spending; this news supports sentiment but does not remove that risk.

    The upgrade is particularly interesting alongside Spire’s roughly US$922 million of infrastructure investment in fiscal 2025 and planned US$809 million in 2026. Those projects sit at the heart of both the earnings-growth story Morgan Stanley is leaning into and the regulatory and cost recovery risks that could pressure margins if approvals or timing do not cooperate.

    Yet behind the upbeat analyst tone, investors should be aware that Spire’s large, ongoing capital program still depends on regulators’ willingness to...

    Read the full narrative on Spire (it's free!)

    Spire's narrative projects $3.2 billion revenue and $344.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires 9.4% yearly revenue growth and a roughly $74 million earnings increase from $270.5 million today.

    Uncover how Spire's forecasts yield a $93.50 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    One Simply Wall St Community member currently estimates Spire’s fair value at US$74.95 per share, showing how a single, detailed view can differ from market pricing. You can weigh that against the earnings growth expectations highlighted by recent analyst commentary and decide how much regulatory risk you think could affect the company’s longer term performance.

    Explore another fair value estimate on Spire - why the stock might be worth as much as $74.95!

    Build Your Own Spire Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.