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    Is Spire Global (SPIR) Quietly Repositioning as a Dual Defense and Energy Data Platform?

    Simply Wall St·12/18/2025 20:14:10
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    • In recent days, Spire Global announced it secured a place on the Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD IDIQ contract with a ceiling of US$151.00 billion and expanded its AI-driven Power Generation Forecasts into the ERCOT power market using its satellite-enhanced weather and RF data capabilities.
    • These moves highlight how Spire is leaning on its fully deployed satellite constellation and AI weather platform to deepen exposure to U.S. defense and renewable energy customers at the same time.
    • We’ll now examine how participation in the SHIELD program could reshape Spire Global’s investment narrative around government-backed, high-value data services.

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    Spire Global Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Spire Global, you need to believe its fully deployed satellite network and AI analytics can turn niche weather and RF data into durable, higher-margin, recurring revenue. The SHIELD IDIQ slot and ERCOT expansion both support that thesis, but they do not immediately change the near term reality of a steep revenue ramp alongside continued operating losses and execution risk on new, government-heavy data streams.

    The SHIELD IDIQ award is the clearest link to today’s story, because it speaks directly to Spire’s push into larger, government-backed RF and space services contracts that support its revenue growth ambitions. However, SHIELD is an umbrella vehicle rather than guaranteed funding, so the key short term catalyst remains Spire’s ability to convert pipeline opportunities into signed, funded task orders at a pace that offsets the loss of maritime revenue and supports its 2025 and 2026 guidance.

    But investors should also be aware of how delays or gaps in government contract awards could...

    Read the full narrative on Spire Global (it's free!)

    Spire Global’s narrative projects $87.2 million revenue and $6.2 million earnings by 2028. This assumes a 4.3% yearly revenue decline and a $104.1 million earnings increase from $-97.9 million today.

    Uncover how Spire Global's forecasts yield a $16.25 fair value, a 131% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SPIR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SPIR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide US$16.25 to US$81.82 range, showing how far apart views can be. Against that backdrop, the reliance on winning and scaling large government contracts after the maritime sale adds another layer of uncertainty that readers may want to explore through multiple angles.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Spire Global - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

    Build Your Own Spire Global Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.