Karoon Energy Ltd's (ASX:KAR) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Market
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.3x Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX:KAR) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Australia have P/E ratios greater than 22x and even P/E's higher than 40x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Karoon Energy's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
View our latest analysis for Karoon Energy
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Karoon Energy's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 37%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 1.2% per annum during the coming three years according to the eleven analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 18% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's understandable that Karoon Energy's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Karoon Energy maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Karoon Energy (at least 1 which is significant), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
You might be able to find a better investment than Karoon Energy. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.