Huatai Securities pointed out that although the November CPI data marginally boosted expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, the Fed may suspend interest rate cuts for observation due to noisy inflation and labor data. Since the tariff rate did not rise further, and there is no significant time lag in the transmission of tariffs to inflation, the impact of tariffs on inflation is moderate. The risk of high US inflation is manageable, but the decline in inflation in November may have been amplified by disruptive factors. The December non-agricultural and CPI data to be released before the January meeting next year is less affected by the government shutdown and can provide more reliable information on the economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve is currently in an observation period. Due to possible gradual improvements in the job market, the Federal Reserve will suspend the benchmark judgment on interest rate cuts in January next year, and cut interest rates 1-2 times in the second half of next year after the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes office.

Huatai Securities pointed out that although the November CPI data marginally boosted expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, the Fed may suspend interest rate cuts for observation due to noisy inflation and labor data. Since the tariff rate did not rise further, and there is no significant time lag in the transmission of tariffs to inflation, the impact of tariffs on inflation is moderate. The risk of high US inflation is manageable, but the decline in inflation in November may have been amplified by disruptive factors. The December non-agricultural and CPI data to be released before the January meeting next year is less affected by the government shutdown and can provide more reliable information on the economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve is currently in an observation period. Due to possible gradual improvements in the job market, the Federal Reserve will suspend the benchmark judgment on interest rate cuts in January next year, and cut interest rates 1-2 times in the second half of next year after the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes office.