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    Did Jefferies’ Upgrade and Undervaluation Thesis Just Shift Trex Company’s (TREX) Investment Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·12/19/2025 01:35:36
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    • Recently, Jefferies upgraded Trex Company to Buy, arguing that the market reaction to softer results has pushed the decking maker’s valuation below what its profitability and market position might warrant.
    • The upgrade spotlights Trex’s reinvestment in marketing, distribution partnerships, and eco-focused composite decking as potential levers to win share from smaller rivals despite industry softness.
    • We’ll now explore how Jefferies’ emphasis on Trex’s perceived undervaluation and market share opportunity could influence the company’s existing investment narrative.

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    Trex Company Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Trex, you need to believe composite decking will keep taking share from wood even as repair and remodel demand stays soft. The key short term catalyst remains execution on marketing and channel programs to convert that structural shift into volume, while the biggest risk is that weaker end demand and growing competition pressure pricing and margins. Jefferies’ upgrade does not materially change either factor, but it does highlight how sharply sentiment has reset around those same drivers.

    The most relevant recent development here is Jefferies’ lift of its rating and price target to US$42, arguing Trex now trades at a discount to its own history and to peers with lower profitability. That view leans heavily on Trex’s expanded programming and distribution partnerships, including its deeper Amerhart tie up in Michigan, as potential supports for share gains that could offset a sluggish R&R backdrop.

    Yet, despite this more optimistic view on share gains, investors should be aware that growing price competition and margin pressure could...

    Read the full narrative on Trex Company (it's free!)

    Trex Company's narrative projects $1.5 billion revenue and $333.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 10.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $146 million earnings increase from $186.7 million today.

    Uncover how Trex Company's forecasts yield a $43.58 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TREX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TREX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$25 to about US$48.88, showing how far apart individual views can be. You might weigh those against the risk that softer repair and remodel demand and rising competition limit how much Trex can benefit from any perceived undervaluation, then explore several alternative viewpoints before forming your own stance.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Trex Company - why the stock might be worth as much as 37% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Trex Company Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.