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    PulteGroup (PHM): Reassessing Valuation After a Recent Pullback in Share Price

    Simply Wall St·12/19/2025 02:36:15
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    PulteGroup (PHM) has slipped about 1% today and roughly 5% over the past week, even though the stock is still up around 13% year to date, raising fresh questions about valuation.

    See our latest analysis for PulteGroup.

    That recent pullback comes after a strong run, with the share price now at $121.61 and the longer term total shareholder return still comfortably positive. This suggests momentum has cooled rather than reversed as investors reassess growth versus housing market risk.

    If PulteGroup has you thinking about where the next opportunity might be, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    With earnings growth cooling and the share price still well above pre-rally levels, are investors getting PulteGroup at a genuine discount today, or is the housing cycle’s next leg of growth already fully priced in?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12.7% Undervalued

    With the most followed fair value estimate sitting meaningfully above the last close at $121.61, the narrative is leaning toward further upside potential.

    PulteGroup's strategic expansion and strong performance in active adult communities (Del Webb and Del Webb Explorer), which command higher prices and margins, positions the company to benefit from sustained demand among aging but financially strong demographics; this is likely to support both revenue growth and margin expansion, particularly as these communities come online more fully in 2026.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what keeps that valuation above today’s price even as revenues and earnings step down? The answer blends shrinking margins, richer multiples and disciplined share count assumptions. Curious which levers do the heavy lifting in this model and how a higher discount rate still leaves room for upside? Read on to unpack the full playbook.

    Result: Fair Value of $139.31 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, persistent affordability pressures and region specific weakness, especially in the West and Texas, could weigh on orders and undermine those margin assumptions.

    Find out about the key risks to this PulteGroup narrative.

    Build Your Own PulteGroup Narrative

    And if this framework does not quite match your own view or research style, you can always build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your PulteGroup research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.