Is Kinsale Capital Group Attractively Priced After Recent Share Weakness In 2025?
- If you are wondering whether Kinsale Capital Group is a bargain or just fairly priced after its big run in recent years, you are not alone. In this piece we break down what the current share price is really implying.
- The stock has inched up 2.0% over the last week and 0.2% over the last month, but that is against a tougher backdrop of a -12.8% year to date and -15.2% over the last year, even after longer term gains of 43.8% over 3 years and 92.7% over 5 years.
- Those moves have played out as investors weigh ongoing growth in the specialty insurance space and Kinsale’s reputation for disciplined underwriting, alongside a broader shift in sentiment toward higher quality financials. At the same time, macro concerns around interest rates and insurance sector cyclicality have added volatility, making it less obvious whether recent weakness is a warning sign or an opportunity.
- Right now, our framework scores Kinsale’s valuation at 2 out of 6 on under-valuation checks. Next, we will walk through what that means under different valuation approaches and finish with a more holistic way to judge whether the stock is truly attractive.
Kinsale Capital Group scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Kinsale Capital Group Excess Returns Analysis
The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company can generate above the return investors demand on its equity, and then projects how long those value creating returns can persist. For Kinsale Capital Group, the starting point is a Book Value of $80.19 per share and a Stable EPS of $23.61 per share, based on weighted future return on equity estimates from 10 analysts.
With a Cost of Equity of $7.12 per share, the model estimates an Excess Return of $16.49 per share, implying Kinsale is generating value above its funding cost. This is supported by an Average Return on Equity of 23.07% and a projected Stable Book Value of $102.33 per share, sourced from weighted future book value estimates from 8 analysts. These inputs feed into the Excess Returns framework to derive an intrinsic value of about $548.42 per share, implying the stock is roughly 27.8% below its current price in the model’s assessment.
This indicates that Kinsale’s profitability and capital efficiency may not be fully reflected in the current market price.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Kinsale Capital Group is undervalued by 27.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 918 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
Approach 2: Kinsale Capital Group Price vs Earnings
For a consistently profitable company like Kinsale Capital Group, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a practical way to judge valuation because it directly links what investors pay to the profits the business is generating today.
In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk justify a higher PE ratio, while slower growth or greater uncertainty should pull that multiple closer to, or even below, the market and industry norms. Kinsale currently trades on a PE of 19.42x, which is above both the Insurance industry average of 13.41x and the broader peer average of 18.47x. This suggests the market is already assigning it a growth and quality premium.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework goes a step further by estimating what PE the company should trade on given its specific earnings growth outlook, profitability, risk profile, industry positioning and market cap. For Kinsale, that Fair Ratio is 13.27x, noticeably below the current 19.42x. On this basis, and even allowing for execution strength, the shares look priced ahead of what its fundamentals alone would justify.
Result: OVERVALUED
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1455 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Kinsale Capital Group Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of a company’s story with a financial forecast and a fair value estimate. A Narrative is your own scenario for Kinsale Capital Group, where you set expectations for future revenue, earnings and margins, and the platform converts that story into projected cash flows, a fair value, and a clear comparison to today’s share price. Narratives on Simply Wall St, available to millions of investors via the Community page, are easy to build and compare, so you can quickly see whether your fair value suggests it is time to buy, hold, or sell. Because Narratives update dynamically as new news, earnings and guidance emerge, your valuation stays grounded in the latest information rather than a static spreadsheet. For example, one Kinsale Narrative might assume stronger underwriting and sustained demand, supporting a fair value near the higher analyst target of around $560, while a more cautious Narrative that emphasizes competition and margin pressure could point to a fair value closer to the lower end near $448.
Do you think there's more to the story for Kinsale Capital Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com