The three-year shareholder returns and company earnings persist lower as Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C (DSM:MPHC) stock falls a further 3.4% in past week
In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. We regret to report that long term Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C. (DSM:MPHC) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 49% in three years, versus a market decline of about 14%. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 27% in a year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 15% in the last three months.
After losing 3.4% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 29% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 20% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C's TSR for the last 3 years was -40%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C had a tough year, with a total loss of 24% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 7.5%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Qatari exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.