Goldman Sachs: Optimistic about next year's shipping and tanker industry and more cautious about container shipping

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs published a research report on the outlook for the global transportation industry in 2026, saying that in the aviation industry, rising international demand and continued supply restrictions will drive the airline's return on equity (ROE) to 22% in 2027, exceeding the industry cycle average. Although it is necessary to pay attention to risks related to Japan in the first half of the year, the bank still has a positive view on airline stocks, and at the same time expects further room for ticket prices to rise; Air China H shares (00753) and China Eastern Airlines A shares (600115.SH) are preferred.

In terms of container shipping, the recovery in supply has made the bank more cautious, and the industry's profit margins will shrink. According to the report, orders for new ships this year were higher than expected, causing orders to account for 33% of current capacity. Furthermore, the potential reopening of the Red Sea may bring further downside risks, releasing about 10% of effective capacity, or causing COSCO Maritime Control (01919,601919.SH) to fall into a state of cash consumption.

As for crude oil tankers, the bank remains optimistic and expects that in the 2026 continuous upward cycle, spot freight costs will rise further, as China's crude oil reserve process may take up to a year, which is three months longer than market expectations, and the bank predicts an increase of only 1% in effective capacity. The company is expected to benefit from COSCO Haineng (01138,600026.SH) due to its greater exposure to crude oil tankers and the Chinese import market.