Harley-Davidson (HOG): Reassessing Valuation After a 29% One-Year Share Price Slide
Harley-Davidson (HOG) has quietly slid over the past year, with the stock now down almost 29% and trading near 21 dollars, raising an obvious question for investors: is this weakness justified?
See our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson.
That slide is not just a bad week or month; it reflects a sustained loss of confidence, with the 1 year total shareholder return of around negative 29 percent echoing an even weaker 3 year total shareholder return trend.
If Harley-Davidson’s recent weakness has you rethinking your strategy, it could be a good moment to explore other auto manufacturers that might offer a healthier balance of growth and resilience.
With revenue and earnings both shrinking, yet the share price trading at a modest discount to analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates, is Harley-Davidson now a contrarian opportunity or simply fairly priced for slower future growth?
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 22.8% Undervalued
Harley-Davidson’s most followed valuation view pegs fair value at 27.50 dollars versus a 21.24 dollar close, which frames the recent slide as potential mispricing.
The analysts have a consensus price target of 29.333 for Harley-Davidson based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of 34.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just 27.0.
Want to see why shrinking sales can still justify a richer future valuation multiple? The narrative leans on margin rebuilding, capital returns, and disciplined discounting of earnings. Interested in which precise assumptions make that math work?
Result: Fair Value of $27.50 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, that optimism still hinges on fragile assumptions around demand and tariffs, where weaker retail trends or higher trade costs could quickly erode the margin recovery story.
Find out about the key risks to this Harley-Davidson narrative.
Build Your Own Harley-Davidson Narrative
If you would rather dig into the numbers yourself and challenge this view, you can build a personalized Harley-Davidson story in minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Harley-Davidson research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Looking for more investment ideas?
Before you move on, make sure you tap into fresh opportunities using the Simply Wall Street Screener, so you are not leaving better ideas on the table.
- Capture underappreciated value by targeting companies trading below their cash flow potential through these 918 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where mispricing can become long term upside.
- Ride structural growth themes by focusing on innovation leaders with these 24 AI penny stocks, positioned to benefit as artificial intelligence reshapes entire industries.
- Strengthen your income stream by zeroing in on companies in these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer yields above 3 percent with the potential for steady payouts.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com