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    Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) Valuation Re‑Examined After Honeymoon Feasibility Study Withdrawal and Cost Outlook Shift

    Simply Wall St·12/19/2025 18:27:31
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    Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) has jolted investors by withdrawing its 2021 Honeymoon uranium feasibility study after a major review flagged less favourable mineralisation and higher long term costs, sending the stock sharply lower and putting the project back under the microscope.

    See our latest analysis for Boss Energy.

    The Honeymoon downgrade caps a rough stretch for shareholders, with a year to date share price return of around negative 47% and a one year total shareholder return of about negative 42%. This comes even after today’s 11% share price rebound from multi year lows, which signals that momentum is still fragile as the market reassesses long term project economics.

    If you want to see how other energy names are positioned while uranium sentiment is this volatile, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for fresh ideas.

    With the shares now trading at a steep discount to analyst targets and sentiment heavily bruised, the key question is whether Boss Energy is genuinely undervalued, or if the market is accurately pricing in weaker future growth.

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 66.7% Undervalued

    Compared to the last close around A$1.32, the narrative fair value of about A$3.95 implies Boss Energy’s intrinsic potential sits far higher. This frames a very different long term picture.

    Boss Energy’s flagship asset is the Honeymoon Project, located in remote South Australia. The project is now fully commissioned, with first uranium production achieved in 2024 and ramp up to full capacity underway. It has a current mine life estimate of over 10 years, based on only a portion of its JORC compliant resource of 71.6 million pounds of U₃O₈, suggesting strong potential for mine life extension and production scale up.

    Read the complete narrative.

    It may be unclear how a single project plus one strategic US stake can justify such a large valuation gap. A key factor is the impact of rapid revenue expansion and a profit profile that can shift as production scales. You can examine which assumptions drive that A$3.95 fair value and how the growth story is modeled to unfold over time.

    Result: Fair Value of $3.95 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, lingering regulatory uncertainty and Boss Energy’s heavy reliance on uranium prices could quickly undermine that optimistic valuation if conditions turn.

    Find out about the key risks to this Boss Energy narrative.

    Build Your Own Boss Energy Narrative

    If this outlook does not quite align with your view or you prefer digging into the data yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way

    A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Boss Energy.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.