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    Will Stronger Sales But Softer EPS Guidance Change National Vision Holdings' (EYE) Investment Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·12/20/2025 03:16:46
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    • Earlier this month, National Vision reported quarterly revenue growth of 7.9% year on year, beating analyst expectations by 3% but issuing full‑year earnings per share guidance that fell short of forecasts.
    • Despite the softer earnings outlook, the company delivered the fastest revenue growth and largest full‑year guidance increase within its specialty retail peer group, underlining its relative strength in a competitive market.
    • Next, we’ll examine how this combination of stronger-than-expected revenue and weaker EPS guidance could reshape National Vision’s investment narrative.

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    National Vision Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

    To own National Vision, you need to believe its brick and mortar model can still grow by capturing more insured customers and higher value eyewear, even as online competition builds. The latest quarter’s strong revenue beat but softer EPS outlook does not materially change that near term story, though it does keep margin pressure and execution risk in sharper focus as the key short term swing factor.

    The most relevant recent update is management’s raised net revenue guidance for fiscal 2025 to US$1,970 million to US$1,988 million, which aligns with the stronger top line in this quarter. That outlook supports the idea that demand and pricing for exams and eyewear are holding up, but it also raises the bar for how efficiently the company must run its stores and optometrist network to turn higher sales into sustainable profit improvement.

    But against that improving sales picture, the threat from online direct to consumer eyewear brands is something investors should be aware of as...

    Read the full narrative on National Vision Holdings (it's free!)

    National Vision Holdings' narrative projects $2.2 billion revenue and $89.4 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how National Vision Holdings' forecasts yield a $32.90 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    EYE 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    EYE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$14 to US$39 per share, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Set against this, the recent mix of outperformance on revenue but weaker EPS guidance puts the focus squarely on margin pressures and how they might shape National Vision’s future earnings power, so it can be useful to weigh several of these perspectives side by side.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on National Vision Holdings - why the stock might be worth as much as 35% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own National Vision Holdings Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your National Vision Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free National Vision Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate National Vision Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.