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    USA Rare Earth (USAR) Valuation: Assessing Potential Upside After Recent Share Price Rebound

    Simply Wall St·12/21/2025 01:22:05
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    USA Rare Earth (USAR) has quietly turned heads after a choppy stretch, with the stock bouncing 2% in the latest session even as it remains down over the past 3 months.

    See our latest analysis for USA Rare Earth.

    With the share price now at $13.84, the stock’s 1 day share price return of 2.40% offers a small bounce against a still weak 90 day share price return of 14.83%. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return of 25.92% hints that longer term momentum is not entirely broken.

    If you are weighing how this kind of volatility fits into your broader strategy, it could be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to uncover other compelling ideas with strong backing.

    With analysts seeing nearly double upside from here, yet fundamentals still in loss-making territory, investors now face a key question: is USA Rare Earth quietly undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

    Discounted Cash Flow Suggests Shares Trade Below Fair Value

    Our DCF model estimates a fair value of $31.93 per share for USA Rare Earth, versus the latest close at $13.84, implying the stock trades at a steep discount.

    The SWS DCF model projects the company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return, producing a single present value estimate. In simple terms, it asks what those future streams of cash are worth in today’s dollars, then compares that figure to the current market price.

    For USA Rare Earth, this framework fits a business that is still loss making, has negligible current revenue, but is forecast to grow its top line rapidly. The model places significant weight on those high growth expectations to offset present-day losses. This helps explain the wide gap between the $31.93 fair value estimate and the $13.84 share price.

    Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

    Result: DCF fair value of $31.93 (UNDERVALUED)

    However, USA Rare Earth remains loss making with no current revenue, so any delay or disappointment in developing Round Top could quickly undermine optimistic growth assumptions.

    Find out about the key risks to this USA Rare Earth narrative.

    Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out USA Rare Earth for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 910 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

    Build Your Own USA Rare Earth Narrative

    If you would rather interrogate the numbers yourself and reach your own conclusions, you can build a complete narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your USA Rare Earth research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.