CITIC Construction Investment: Three clues for A-share investment at the end of the year and the beginning of the year
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that short-term A-share fluctuations are mainly affected by the external environment, such as concerns about the US AI bubble and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. Currently, the stock prices of core US AI companies have stabilized, and the subsequent impact of the implementation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is limited, and A-shares are expected to resonate upward with global stock markets. At the end of the year and the beginning of the New Year, the A-share industry allocation focused on three clues: dividend value, layout and hot topics. The industry focuses on non-ferrous metals (silver, copper, tin, tungsten), high dividends in Hong Kong stocks, non-silver, AI (liquid cooling, optical communication), new energy (energy storage, solid state batteries), innovative drugs, banks, etc. The theme focuses on: Hainan (tax exempt), nuclear power, snow and ice tourism.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Recent market characteristics: Continued narrow fluctuations, still affected by external disturbances
The bank believes that the current market is still in a narrow fluctuation pattern. With the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates in December and the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference policy, the mid-term market policy and liquidity expectations are already clear. Short-term A-share fluctuations are mainly affected by the external environment, such as concerns about the US AI bubble and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. Currently, the stock prices of core US AI companies have stabilized, and the subsequent implementation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has limited impact. A-shares are expected to resonate upward with global stock markets.
Analyzing from the perspective of market sentiment, the investor sentiment index recently fell below 70, and is at the lower end of the range in this round of the bull market. This also shows that the current pessimism of investors has received a full response in a round. Considering the still high level of leveraged capital sentiment, it is expected that investor sentiment will also pick up slightly, driving market fluctuations upward.
Three clues to the configuration of the A-share industry
At the end of the year and the beginning of the New Year, the bank's industry configuration ideas mainly have three main lines:
1) Dividend value: According to seasonal effects at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, investors at the end of the year have a preference for profit cashing out and demand for dividend allocation in anticipation of a “good start” with superimposed insurance capital. The large market value and high dividend dividend style have a higher win rate. The focus is on the high dividends of Hong Kong stocks, non-banks, banks and other dividends and financial sectors.
2) Layout boom: In response to the restlessness of next spring (or the New Year's Eve market in advance), the layout will decline when adjustments occur in high-growth industries. The booming industries we focus on include non-ferrous metals (silver, copper, tin, tungsten), AI (liquid cooling, optical communication), new energy (energy storage, solid state batteries), and innovative pharmaceuticals.
3) Hot topics: The end of the year is also an active period for hot topics, and policy and science and technology topics are expected to perform well. The current focus is on: Hainan (tax exempt), nuclear power, snow and ice tourism.
The industry focuses on non-ferrous metals (silver, copper, tin, tungsten), high dividends in Hong Kong stocks, non-silver, AI (liquid cooling, optical communication), new energy (energy storage, solid state batteries), innovative drugs, banks, etc. The theme focuses on: Hainan (tax exempt), nuclear power, snow and ice tourism.