Assessing Ascentage Pharma (SEHK:6855) Valuation After New ASH 2025 Hematology Data on Olverembatinib and Lisaftoclax
Ascentage Pharma Group International (SEHK:6855) just used the 67th ASH Annual Meeting as a showcase, rolling out fresh long term data on Olverembatinib and Lisaftoclax that further clarifies the story behind the stock.
See our latest analysis for Ascentage Pharma Group International.
The latest ASH data land after a bumpy stretch, with a 30 day share price return of minus 11.8 percent and a 90 day share price return of minus 25.1 percent. However, a much stronger year to date share price return and robust multiyear total shareholder returns suggest longer term momentum is still intact rather than fading.
If Ascentage’s hematology pipeline has caught your eye, this could be a good moment to see what else is shaping the sector through healthcare stocks.
With the shares still trading at a steep discount to analyst estimates despite double digit revenue growth, investors now have to ask: is Ascentage an underappreciated growth story, or is the market already pricing in the next leg of upside?
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 39.3% Undervalued
With Ascentage Pharma Group International last closing at HK$56.35 against a narrative fair value of HK$92.81, the valuation gap hinges on aggressive growth and margin shifts.
Analysts expect earnings to reach CN¥50.7 million (and earnings per share of CN¥0.12) by about August 2028, up from CN¥-405.4 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting CN¥905 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting CN¥-528.9 million.
Want to see what kind of revenue surge, margin turnaround, and future earnings multiple are reflected in that valuation gap? The full narrative sets out the projections underpinning this fair value, including assumptions more commonly seen in hyper growth sectors. Curious which levers would need to perform strongly to support those numbers? Explore how this roadmap outlines a path for Ascentage from deep losses to meaningful profits.
Result: Fair Value of $92.81 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, sustained heavy R&D spending and dependence on China-focused Olverembatinib revenues could quickly test the market’s confidence in this growth script.
Find out about the key risks to this Ascentage Pharma Group International narrative.
Another Angle on Valuation
While the narrative fair value points to upside, our SWS DCF model actually suggests Ascentage Pharma Group International is trading above intrinsic value, at around HK$26.11 versus the current HK$56.35. If cash flows do not ramp as hoped, is today’s price already baking in too much optimism?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Build Your Own Ascentage Pharma Group International Narrative
If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Ascentage Pharma Group International research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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