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    MongoDB’s Strong Q3 Atlas Gains and Raised Outlook Could Be A Game Changer For MDB

    Simply Wall St·12/21/2025 14:11:35
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    • Earlier this week, MongoDB reported an exceptional third quarter, with revenue up 18.7% year on year, accelerated growth in its Atlas cloud database platform, and raised guidance supported by 130 new enterprise customers paying over US$100,000 annually.
    • The strong Atlas momentum, especially among large enterprises, is reinforcing MongoDB’s role as a core cloud-native database provider at a time when competition and AI-driven workloads are intensifying.
    • Now we’ll examine how this stronger Atlas growth and upgraded outlook might influence MongoDB’s existing investment narrative and risk-reward profile.

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    MongoDB Investment Narrative Recap

    To own MongoDB, you need to believe its Atlas cloud platform can keep scaling with enterprise data and AI workloads faster than rival databases. This quarter’s stronger Atlas growth and raised guidance support that thesis, but they do not remove the key near term risk that hyperscaler native and open source alternatives could pressure pricing and margins if Atlas growth slows or becomes more expensive to win.

    Among recent updates, Raymond James initiating coverage with a Market Perform rating after the quarter is especially relevant, as it frames MongoDB as important but facing intense database competition. That view lines up with the current debate: whether accelerating Atlas adoption and higher revenue guidance can offset concerns about future growth durability and the profitability impact of competing against cloud provider databases and open source.

    Yet investors should also be aware that rising competition from cheaper cloud native and open source databases could...

    Read the full narrative on MongoDB (it's free!)

    MongoDB's narrative projects $3.5 billion revenue and $5.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 16.8% yearly revenue growth and an $83.6 million earnings increase from -$78.6 million today.

    Uncover how MongoDB's forecasts yield a $440.10 fair value, in line with its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MDB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MDB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Eleven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$130 to US$440 per share, showing how far opinions can stretch. As you weigh those views, remember that the company’s growing reliance on Atlas to drive both revenue and margins could cut both ways for future performance, so it is worth exploring several alternative takes before deciding where you stand.

    Explore 11 other fair value estimates on MongoDB - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own MongoDB Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.